BASE HEADER

Warwick District Council Local Plan 2014 Publication Draft DS 6 and DS 7. Paragraph Numbers 2.20 to 2.30.

The Council's provision of 12,860 new homes between 2011 and 2029 (para 2.20) is based on economic projections for the area including projections of POPULATION numbers through 2029 (from the SHMA of 2013). However,
(1) The Plan projections use the old out-of-date data on population from the ONS which only covers the period until the year 2021. The revised ONS data (May 2014) that cover the full period to 2029 and also show much slower growth are ignored.
(2) The Plan projections are questionable because in translating population numbers into the number of dwellings required, the consultants have assumed a significant decline in the size of the average Warwick household: to a figure eventually reaching 2.181 persons per households by 2029 - lower than the average figure of 2.294 from the 2011 Census.