Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 66780

Derbyniwyd: 27/06/2014

Ymatebydd: Trustees of the Haseley Settlement

Asiant : RPS Planning & Development

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Heb nodi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

Housing trajectory is unsound in respect of its reference to windfall allowances. The allowance is overestimated and unrealistic in respect of windfall developments particularly in the rural area where the settlement limits proposed are overly restrictive. The allowance makes provision for student accommodation and therefore will not meet the identified housing needs of the district. The authority should only include student accommodation based on accommodation it realises from the housing market. This requires the dwelling unit to have first been occupied by students then alternative accommodation be provided to release the dwelling unit back.

Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 66783

Derbyniwyd: 27/06/2014

Ymatebydd: Bishop's Tachbrook Parish Council

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Ydi

DS7 shows how the housing requirement will be met. The requirement needs to be revised to comply with the reduction in the population growth now known.

The completion between 2011 and 2013 are not consistent with the figure published in June 2013.

DS7 makes no provision to account for 687 over-supply form previous years (see PPG 3-036), nor does it account for 450 completions during 13/14. It does not include completions since 1/4/14 nor does it include an up to date assessment of site under construction. Finally it does not take account of vacant dwellings.

DS7 includes a balance to be provided on allocated sites. NE5 conflicts with DS11 where the Local Plan includes a significant number of sites as a first call for the housing required, before brownfield and urban regeneration sites have been fully examined.

The housing trajectory is unexplained and shows annual targets that are unlikely to be met. For a trajectory to be achieved, it should be site related so that as sites are approved they can be included in the trajectory correctly and confidently. 2014/15 is supposed to deliver over 1,000 homes but as yet none of the large sites have commenced.

DS4 is not be observed in other policies indicating inconsistencies. In the first instance, allocations will be directed to previously developed land within urban areas - if this is the case why have 5 major sites been approved in advance of previously developed land within the urban areas? greenfield sites will not need to be identified for housing because the revised population projection shows that the number of homes have either already been built, permission granted, allocated without involving greenfield or green belt for up to 10,100 homes, more than is now known to be required.

Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 66794

Derbyniwyd: 26/06/2014

Ymatebydd: Gallagher Estates

Asiant : Pegasus Group

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Ydi

Raises concerns over the composition of the Council's 12,600 housing requirement. Of those sites with planning permission not all will be developed, it is suggested that a 10% non implementation discount is applied. In relation to windfalls the NPPF only refers to them being included in the 5 yr. supply where there is compelling evidence that such sites have become available in the area and will continue to provide a reliable supply. There is no reference to windfalls being allowed within a local plan. If all sites are identified as part of the SHLAA there should be a limited amount of windfalls arising as part of the supply. If undertaken correctly the SHLAA should reduce uncertainty of unknown sites coming forward during the plan period. The Council's windfall paper fails to acknowledge that the number of windfall sites has been greater than plan allocations due to the existence of a policy vacuum with few allocated site remaining. The lack of a five year housing supply is likely to have encouraged sites of a windfall nature to come forward. The level of windfalls going forward is likely to reduce. In terms of the analysis of different windfall types it is unclear why sites in and on the edge of rural villages have not been assessed as part of the SHLAA process. The Council has attempted to estimate future trends for this category and added 40%. There is no justification for this. In terms of conversions and changes of use, it is accepted that development arising from this source can be unexpected and reactive to socio economic changes. There is a finite supply of such sources (such as public buildings) and it should not be assumed trends will continue. Known vacant sites should be assessed in the SHLAA. For the category relating to redevelopment/ new build sites with a capacity of 5 or more dwellings, these should all be identified within the SHLAA and accordingly if deliverable it should be categorised as an identified SHLAA site as being suitable within the plan. The inclusion of a windfall allowance is not encouraged by government policy. The correct approach is to undertake a comprehensive review of all land supply in order to get a true understanding of the land likely to come forward. The only category worthy of inclusion as windfall within the Local Plan is redevelopment/ new builds fewer than 5 dwellings. It would then total 144 dwellings over the whole plan period for windfalls.

Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 66901

Derbyniwyd: 03/07/2014

Ymatebydd: Colin Sharp

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

The overall forecast of housing need of 12900 is considered to be exaggerated. The ONS estimates have been revised downwards and suggest only 8,100 houses are needed to meet natural increase and inward migration to Warwick District. The SHMA suggests that occupancy rates of houses will fall significantly from 2.2. Such a decrease is unrealistic and the plan is therefore seeking to justify the provision of more houses than will actually be needed to house the target population.
There is already more than a five year supply of land ready for development. As ONS estimates have dropped less houses will be needed to meet the requirement for 5 years supply. Campaign groups have claimed that there is already a five year supply; the revised ONS estimates would appear to reinforce this position.
Population projections underpin the plan and are fundamental to it being properly justified/sound. The GL Hearn projections used in the SHMA for Coventry and Warwickshire are used as the basis for the Plan but are now discredited by the may ONS population figures issued in May 2014.
The recent ONS figures are much lower than those used in the SHMA 15,313 rather 21,472, a fall of 6,159 persons or a 28.7% reduction. This is very significant in that it changes the numbers of dwellings that will be necessary; the amount of infrastructure needed to support the housing / population and reduces the amount of Greenfield needed to be taken for new allocations.
The reduction in population and required housing will also improve the 5 year housing supply position.
It is considered that the SHMA underestimates the future housing occupancy rate in the district (see statistics in full submission). This alongside the potential for minor density adjustments can also have an impact on the amount of housing required in Warwick District and could lower the numbers significantly.
Research undertaken by local campaign groups (supported by respected University of Warwick economists), shows conclusively that maintaining a housing target of 12900 by 2028 cannot be justified on the basis of the latest figures ( see power point slides in full submission).
A decision to continue to work to the Council's current housing target can only be based on the Leadership of Warwick District Council being determined to " go for growth" in the face of the communities wish for a plan that would do no more than meet the needs of natural growth with a modest allowance for inward migration.
To conclude / summarise
*Warwick's population projection is now 28.7% less than the figures used to formulate the consultation draft local plan. The Plan is therefore unsound based on incorrect/ inadequate data.
*All the other authorities in the Housing Market area are also showing similar reductions in their population projections, including Coventry.
*The method by which population is converted into the numbers of dwellings required needs better determination by calculation, using the known housing type and size to be included in the plan.
*The lower housing target will require the list of sites to be included in the plan to be reduced. In sustainability terms this will imply brownfield sites being put first and only including Greenfield where essential.
*To delay a revision of the 5 year housing supply calculation / requirement in light of the new evidence of a much lower need for housing would be neglectful.
*Dependent matters such as infrastructure needs and costs will then need to be matched to the new lower target.

Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 66909

Derbyniwyd: 03/07/2014

Ymatebydd: Ms Alison Cox

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

The overall forecast of housing need of 12900 is considered to be exaggerated. The ONS estimates have been revised downwards and suggest only 8,100 houses are needed to meet natural increase and inward migration to Warwick District. The SHMA suggests that occupancy rates of houses will fall significantly from 2.2. Such a decrease is unrealistic and the plan is therefore seeking to justify the provision of more houses than will actually be needed to house the target population.
There is already more than a five year supply of land ready for development. As ONS estimates have dropped less houses will be needed to meet the requirement for 5 years supply. Campaign groups have claimed that there is already a five year supply; the revised ONS estimates would appear to reinforce this position.
Population projections underpin the plan and are fundamental to it being properly justified/sound. The GL Hearn projections used in the SHMA for Coventry and Warwickshire are used as the basis for the Plan but are now discredited by the may ONS population figures issued in May 2014.
The recent ONS figures are much lower than those used in the SHMA 15,313 rather 21,472, a fall of 6,159 persons or a 28.7% reduction. This is very significant in that it changes the numbers of dwellings that will be necessary; the amount of infrastructure needed to support the housing / population and reduces the amount of Greenfield needed to be taken for new allocations.
The reduction in population and required housing will also improve the 5 year housing supply position.
It is considered that the SHMA underestimates the future housing occupancy rate in the district (see statistics in full submission). This alongside the potential for minor density adjustments can also have an impact on the amount of housing required in Warwick District and could lower the numbers significantly.
Research undertaken by local campaign groups (supported by respected University of Warwick economists), shows conclusively that maintaining a housing target of 12900 by 2028 cannot be justified on the basis of the latest figures ( see power point slides in full submission).
A decision to continue to work to the Council's current housing target can only be based on the Leadership of Warwick District Council being determined to " go for growth" in the face of the communities wish for a plan that would do no more than meet the needs of natural growth with a modest allowance for inward migration.
To conclude / summarise
*Warwick's population projection is now 28.7% less than the figures used to formulate the consultation draft local plan. The Plan is therefore unsound based on incorrect/ inadequate data.
*All the other authorities in the Housing Market area are also showing similar reductions in their population projections, including Coventry.
*The method by which population is converted into the numbers of dwellings required needs better determination by calculation, using the known housing type and size to be included in the plan.
*The lower housing target will require the list of sites to be included in the plan to be reduced. In sustainability terms this will imply brownfield sites being put first and only including Greenfield where essential.
*To delay a revision of the 5 year housing supply calculation / requirement in light of the new evidence of a much lower need for housing would be neglectful.
*Dependent matters such as infrastructure needs and costs will then need to be matched to the new lower target.

Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 66917

Derbyniwyd: 03/07/2014

Ymatebydd: Alison Kelly

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

The overall forecast of housing need of 12900 is considered to be exaggerated. The ONS estimates have been revised downwards and suggest only 8,100 houses are needed to meet natural increase and inward migration to Warwick District. The SHMA suggests that occupancy rates of houses will fall significantly from 2.2. Such a decrease is unrealistic and the plan is therefore seeking to justify the provision of more houses than will actually be needed to house the target population.
There is already more than a five year supply of land ready for development. As ONS estimates have dropped less houses will be needed to meet the requirement for 5 years supply. Campaign groups have claimed that there is already a five year supply; the revised ONS estimates would appear to reinforce this position.
Population projections underpin the plan and are fundamental to it being properly justified/sound. The GL Hearn projections used in the SHMA for Coventry and Warwickshire are used as the basis for the Plan but are now discredited by the may ONS population figures issued in May 2014.
The recent ONS figures are much lower than those used in the SHMA 15,313 rather 21,472, a fall of 6,159 persons or a 28.7% reduction. This is very significant in that it changes the numbers of dwellings that will be necessary; the amount of infrastructure needed to support the housing / population and reduces the amount of Greenfield needed to be taken for new allocations.
The reduction in population and required housing will also improve the 5 year housing supply position.
It is considered that the SHMA underestimates the future housing occupancy rate in the district (see statistics in full submission). This alongside the potential for minor density adjustments can also have an impact on the amount of housing required in Warwick District and could lower the numbers significantly.
Research undertaken by local campaign groups (supported by respected University of Warwick economists), shows conclusively that maintaining a housing target of 12900 by 2028 cannot be justified on the basis of the latest figures ( see power point slides in full submission).
A decision to continue to work to the Council's current housing target can only be based on the Leadership of Warwick District Council being determined to " go for growth" in the face of the communities wish for a plan that would do no more than meet the needs of natural growth with a modest allowance for inward migration.
To conclude / summarise
*Warwick's population projection is now 28.7% less than the figures used to formulate the consultation draft local plan. The Plan is therefore unsound based on incorrect/ inadequate data.
*All the other authorities in the Housing Market area are also showing similar reductions in their population projections, including Coventry.
*The method by which population is converted into the numbers of dwellings required needs better determination by calculation, using the known housing type and size to be included in the plan.
*The lower housing target will require the list of sites to be included in the plan to be reduced. In sustainability terms this will imply brownfield sites being put first and only including Greenfield where essential.
*To delay a revision of the 5 year housing supply calculation / requirement in light of the new evidence of a much lower need for housing would be neglectful.
*Dependent matters such as infrastructure needs and costs will then need to be matched to the new lower target.

Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 66925

Derbyniwyd: 03/07/2014

Ymatebydd: Andrew Cliffe

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

The overall forecast of housing need of 12900 is considered to be exaggerated. The ONS estimates have been revised downwards and suggest only 8,100 houses are needed to meet natural increase and inward migration to Warwick District. The SHMA suggests that occupancy rates of houses will fall significantly from 2.2. Such a decrease is unrealistic and the plan is therefore seeking to justify the provision of more houses than will actually be needed to house the target population.
There is already more than a five year supply of land ready for development. As ONS estimates have dropped less houses will be needed to meet the requirement for 5 years supply. Campaign groups have claimed that there is already a five year supply; the revised ONS estimates would appear to reinforce this position.
Population projections underpin the plan and are fundamental to it being properly justified/sound. The GL Hearn projections used in the SHMA for Coventry and Warwickshire are used as the basis for the Plan but are now discredited by the may ONS population figures issued in May 2014.
The recent ONS figures are much lower than those used in the SHMA 15,313 rather 21,472, a fall of 6,159 persons or a 28.7% reduction. This is very significant in that it changes the numbers of dwellings that will be necessary; the amount of infrastructure needed to support the housing / population and reduces the amount of Greenfield needed to be taken for new allocations.
The reduction in population and required housing will also improve the 5 year housing supply position.
It is considered that the SHMA underestimates the future housing occupancy rate in the district (see statistics in full submission). This alongside the potential for minor density adjustments can also have an impact on the amount of housing required in Warwick District and could lower the numbers significantly.
Research undertaken by local campaign groups (supported by respected University of Warwick economists), shows conclusively that maintaining a housing target of 12900 by 2028 cannot be justified on the basis of the latest figures ( see power point slides in full submission).
A decision to continue to work to the Council's current housing target can only be based on the Leadership of Warwick District Council being determined to " go for growth" in the face of the communities wish for a plan that would do no more than meet the needs of natural growth with a modest allowance for inward migration.
To conclude / summarise
*Warwick's population projection is now 28.7% less than the figures used to formulate the consultation draft local plan. The Plan is therefore unsound based on incorrect/ inadequate data.
*All the other authorities in the Housing Market area are also showing similar reductions in their population projections, including Coventry.
*The method by which population is converted into the numbers of dwellings required needs better determination by calculation, using the known housing type and size to be included in the plan.
*The lower housing target will require the list of sites to be included in the plan to be reduced. In sustainability terms this will imply brownfield sites being put first and only including Greenfield where essential.
*To delay a revision of the 5 year housing supply calculation / requirement in light of the new evidence of a much lower need for housing would be neglectful.
*Dependent matters such as infrastructure needs and costs will then need to be matched to the new lower target.

Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 66933

Derbyniwyd: 03/07/2014

Ymatebydd: Angelo Cugini

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

The overall forecast of housing need of 12900 is considered to be exaggerated. The ONS estimates have been revised downwards and suggest only 8,100 houses are needed to meet natural increase and inward migration to Warwick District. The SHMA suggests that occupancy rates of houses will fall significantly from 2.2. Such a decrease is unrealistic and the plan is therefore seeking to justify the provision of more houses than will actually be needed to house the target population.
There is already more than a five year supply of land ready for development. As ONS estimates have dropped less houses will be needed to meet the requirement for 5 years supply. Campaign groups have claimed that there is already a five year supply; the revised ONS estimates would appear to reinforce this position.
Population projections underpin the plan and are fundamental to it being properly justified/sound. The GL Hearn projections used in the SHMA for Coventry and Warwickshire are used as the basis for the Plan but are now discredited by the may ONS population figures issued in May 2014.
The recent ONS figures are much lower than those used in the SHMA 15,313 rather 21,472, a fall of 6,159 persons or a 28.7% reduction. This is very significant in that it changes the numbers of dwellings that will be necessary; the amount of infrastructure needed to support the housing / population and reduces the amount of Greenfield needed to be taken for new allocations.
The reduction in population and required housing will also improve the 5 year housing supply position.
It is considered that the SHMA underestimates the future housing occupancy rate in the district (see statistics in full submission). This alongside the potential for minor density adjustments can also have an impact on the amount of housing required in Warwick District and could lower the numbers significantly.
Research undertaken by local campaign groups (supported by respected University of Warwick economists), shows conclusively that maintaining a housing target of 12900 by 2028 cannot be justified on the basis of the latest figures ( see power point slides in full submission).
A decision to continue to work to the Council's current housing target can only be based on the Leadership of Warwick District Council being determined to " go for growth" in the face of the communities wish for a plan that would do no more than meet the needs of natural growth with a modest allowance for inward migration.
To conclude / summarise
*Warwick's population projection is now 28.7% less than the figures used to formulate the consultation draft local plan. The Plan is therefore unsound based on incorrect/ inadequate data.
*All the other authorities in the Housing Market area are also showing similar reductions in their population projections, including Coventry.
*The method by which population is converted into the numbers of dwellings required needs better determination by calculation, using the known housing type and size to be included in the plan.
*The lower housing target will require the list of sites to be included in the plan to be reduced. In sustainability terms this will imply brownfield sites being put first and only including Greenfield where essential.
*To delay a revision of the 5 year housing supply calculation / requirement in light of the new evidence of a much lower need for housing would be neglectful.
*Dependent matters such as infrastructure needs and costs will then need to be matched to the new lower target.

Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 66941

Derbyniwyd: 03/07/2014

Ymatebydd: Barbara Groves

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

The overall forecast of housing need of 12900 is considered to be exaggerated. The ONS estimates have been revised downwards and suggest only 8,100 houses are needed to meet natural increase and inward migration to Warwick District. The SHMA suggests that occupancy rates of houses will fall significantly from 2.2. Such a decrease is unrealistic and the plan is therefore seeking to justify the provision of more houses than will actually be needed to house the target population.
There is already more than a five year supply of land ready for development. As ONS estimates have dropped less houses will be needed to meet the requirement for 5 years supply. Campaign groups have claimed that there is already a five year supply; the revised ONS estimates would appear to reinforce this position.
Population projections underpin the plan and are fundamental to it being properly justified/sound. The GL Hearn projections used in the SHMA for Coventry and Warwickshire are used as the basis for the Plan but are now discredited by the may ONS population figures issued in May 2014.
The recent ONS figures are much lower than those used in the SHMA 15,313 rather 21,472, a fall of 6,159 persons or a 28.7% reduction. This is very significant in that it changes the numbers of dwellings that will be necessary; the amount of infrastructure needed to support the housing / population and reduces the amount of Greenfield needed to be taken for new allocations.
The reduction in population and required housing will also improve the 5 year housing supply position.
It is considered that the SHMA underestimates the future housing occupancy rate in the district (see statistics in full submission). This alongside the potential for minor density adjustments can also have an impact on the amount of housing required in Warwick District and could lower the numbers significantly.
Research undertaken by local campaign groups (supported by respected University of Warwick economists), shows conclusively that maintaining a housing target of 12900 by 2028 cannot be justified on the basis of the latest figures ( see power point slides in full submission).
A decision to continue to work to the Council's current housing target can only be based on the Leadership of Warwick District Council being determined to " go for growth" in the face of the communities wish for a plan that would do no more than meet the needs of natural growth with a modest allowance for inward migration.
To conclude / summarise
*Warwick's population projection is now 28.7% less than the figures used to formulate the consultation draft local plan. The Plan is therefore unsound based on incorrect/ inadequate data.
*All the other authorities in the Housing Market area are also showing similar reductions in their population projections, including Coventry.
*The method by which population is converted into the numbers of dwellings required needs better determination by calculation, using the known housing type and size to be included in the plan.
*The lower housing target will require the list of sites to be included in the plan to be reduced. In sustainability terms this will imply brownfield sites being put first and only including Greenfield where essential.
*To delay a revision of the 5 year housing supply calculation / requirement in light of the new evidence of a much lower need for housing would be neglectful.
*Dependent matters such as infrastructure needs and costs will then need to be matched to the new lower target.

Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 66949

Derbyniwyd: 03/07/2014

Ymatebydd: Professor Bob Ireland

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

The overall forecast of housing need of 12900 is considered to be exaggerated. The ONS estimates have been revised downwards and suggest only 8,100 houses are needed to meet natural increase and inward migration to Warwick District. The SHMA suggests that occupancy rates of houses will fall significantly from 2.2. Such a decrease is unrealistic and the plan is therefore seeking to justify the provision of more houses than will actually be needed to house the target population.
There is already more than a five year supply of land ready for development. As ONS estimates have dropped less houses will be needed to meet the requirement for 5 years supply. Campaign groups have claimed that there is already a five year supply; the revised ONS estimates would appear to reinforce this position.
Population projections underpin the plan and are fundamental to it being properly justified/sound. The GL Hearn projections used in the SHMA for Coventry and Warwickshire are used as the basis for the Plan but are now discredited by the may ONS population figures issued in May 2014.
The recent ONS figures are much lower than those used in the SHMA 15,313 rather 21,472, a fall of 6,159 persons or a 28.7% reduction. This is very significant in that it changes the numbers of dwellings that will be necessary; the amount of infrastructure needed to support the housing / population and reduces the amount of Greenfield needed to be taken for new allocations.
The reduction in population and required housing will also improve the 5 year housing supply position.
It is considered that the SHMA underestimates the future housing occupancy rate in the district (see statistics in full submission). This alongside the potential for minor density adjustments can also have an impact on the amount of housing required in Warwick District and could lower the numbers significantly.
Research undertaken by local campaign groups (supported by respected University of Warwick economists), shows conclusively that maintaining a housing target of 12900 by 2028 cannot be justified on the basis of the latest figures ( see power point slides in full submission).
A decision to continue to work to the Council's current housing target can only be based on the Leadership of Warwick District Council being determined to " go for growth" in the face of the communities wish for a plan that would do no more than meet the needs of natural growth with a modest allowance for inward migration.
To conclude / summarise
*Warwick's population projection is now 28.7% less than the figures used to formulate the consultation draft local plan. The Plan is therefore unsound based on incorrect/ inadequate data.
*All the other authorities in the Housing Market area are also showing similar reductions in their population projections, including Coventry.
*The method by which population is converted into the numbers of dwellings required needs better determination by calculation, using the known housing type and size to be included in the plan.
*The lower housing target will require the list of sites to be included in the plan to be reduced. In sustainability terms this will imply brownfield sites being put first and only including Greenfield where essential.
*To delay a revision of the 5 year housing supply calculation / requirement in light of the new evidence of a much lower need for housing would be neglectful.
*Dependent matters such as infrastructure needs and costs will then need to be matched to the new lower target.

Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 66957

Derbyniwyd: 03/07/2014

Ymatebydd: Christopher Paden

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

The overall forecast of housing need of 12900 is considered to be exaggerated. The ONS estimates have been revised downwards and suggest only 8,100 houses are needed to meet natural increase and inward migration to Warwick District. The SHMA suggests that occupancy rates of houses will fall significantly from 2.2. Such a decrease is unrealistic and the plan is therefore seeking to justify the provision of more houses than will actually be needed to house the target population.
There is already more than a five year supply of land ready for development. As ONS estimates have dropped less houses will be needed to meet the requirement for 5 years supply. Campaign groups have claimed that there is already a five year supply; the revised ONS estimates would appear to reinforce this position.
Population projections underpin the plan and are fundamental to it being properly justified/sound. The GL Hearn projections used in the SHMA for Coventry and Warwickshire are used as the basis for the Plan but are now discredited by the may ONS population figures issued in May 2014.
The recent ONS figures are much lower than those used in the SHMA 15,313 rather 21,472, a fall of 6,159 persons or a 28.7% reduction. This is very significant in that it changes the numbers of dwellings that will be necessary; the amount of infrastructure needed to support the housing / population and reduces the amount of Greenfield needed to be taken for new allocations.
The reduction in population and required housing will also improve the 5 year housing supply position.
It is considered that the SHMA underestimates the future housing occupancy rate in the district (see statistics in full submission). This alongside the potential for minor density adjustments can also have an impact on the amount of housing required in Warwick District and could lower the numbers significantly.
Research undertaken by local campaign groups (supported by respected University of Warwick economists), shows conclusively that maintaining a housing target of 12900 by 2028 cannot be justified on the basis of the latest figures ( see power point slides in full submission).
A decision to continue to work to the Council's current housing target can only be based on the Leadership of Warwick District Council being determined to " go for growth" in the face of the communities wish for a plan that would do no more than meet the needs of natural growth with a modest allowance for inward migration.
To conclude / summarise
*Warwick's population projection is now 28.7% less than the figures used to formulate the consultation draft local plan. The Plan is therefore unsound based on incorrect/ inadequate data.
*All the other authorities in the Housing Market area are also showing similar reductions in their population projections, including Coventry.
*The method by which population is converted into the numbers of dwellings required needs better determination by calculation, using the known housing type and size to be included in the plan.
*The lower housing target will require the list of sites to be included in the plan to be reduced. In sustainability terms this will imply brownfield sites being put first and only including Greenfield where essential.
*To delay a revision of the 5 year housing supply calculation / requirement in light of the new evidence of a much lower need for housing would be neglectful.
*Dependent matters such as infrastructure needs and costs will then need to be matched to the new lower target.

Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 66965

Derbyniwyd: 03/07/2014

Ymatebydd: Elizabeth Cliffe

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

The overall forecast of housing need of 12900 is considered to be exaggerated. The ONS estimates have been revised downwards and suggest only 8,100 houses are needed to meet natural increase and inward migration to Warwick District. The SHMA suggests that occupancy rates of houses will fall significantly from 2.2. Such a decrease is unrealistic and the plan is therefore seeking to justify the provision of more houses than will actually be needed to house the target population.
There is already more than a five year supply of land ready for development. As ONS estimates have dropped less houses will be needed to meet the requirement for 5 years supply. Campaign groups have claimed that there is already a five year supply; the revised ONS estimates would appear to reinforce this position.
Population projections underpin the plan and are fundamental to it being properly justified/sound. The GL Hearn projections used in the SHMA for Coventry and Warwickshire are used as the basis for the Plan but are now discredited by the may ONS population figures issued in May 2014.
The recent ONS figures are much lower than those used in the SHMA 15,313 rather 21,472, a fall of 6,159 persons or a 28.7% reduction. This is very significant in that it changes the numbers of dwellings that will be necessary; the amount of infrastructure needed to support the housing / population and reduces the amount of Greenfield needed to be taken for new allocations.
The reduction in population and required housing will also improve the 5 year housing supply position.
It is considered that the SHMA underestimates the future housing occupancy rate in the district (see statistics in full submission). This alongside the potential for minor density adjustments can also have an impact on the amount of housing required in Warwick District and could lower the numbers significantly.
Research undertaken by local campaign groups (supported by respected University of Warwick economists), shows conclusively that maintaining a housing target of 12900 by 2028 cannot be justified on the basis of the latest figures ( see power point slides in full submission).
A decision to continue to work to the Council's current housing target can only be based on the Leadership of Warwick District Council being determined to " go for growth" in the face of the communities wish for a plan that would do no more than meet the needs of natural growth with a modest allowance for inward migration.
To conclude / summarise
*Warwick's population projection is now 28.7% less than the figures used to formulate the consultation draft local plan. The Plan is therefore unsound based on incorrect/ inadequate data.
*All the other authorities in the Housing Market area are also showing similar reductions in their population projections, including Coventry.
*The method by which population is converted into the numbers of dwellings required needs better determination by calculation, using the known housing type and size to be included in the plan.
*The lower housing target will require the list of sites to be included in the plan to be reduced. In sustainability terms this will imply brownfield sites being put first and only including Greenfield where essential.
*To delay a revision of the 5 year housing supply calculation / requirement in light of the new evidence of a much lower need for housing would be neglectful.
*Dependent matters such as infrastructure needs and costs will then need to be matched to the new lower target.

Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 66973

Derbyniwyd: 03/07/2014

Ymatebydd: Mrs Kay Cugini

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

The overall forecast of housing need of 12900 is considered to be exaggerated. The ONS estimates have been revised downwards and suggest only 8,100 houses are needed to meet natural increase and inward migration to Warwick District. The SHMA suggests that occupancy rates of houses will fall significantly from 2.2. Such a decrease is unrealistic and the plan is therefore seeking to justify the provision of more houses than will actually be needed to house the target population.
There is already more than a five year supply of land ready for development. As ONS estimates have dropped less houses will be needed to meet the requirement for 5 years supply. Campaign groups have claimed that there is already a five year supply; the revised ONS estimates would appear to reinforce this position.
Population projections underpin the plan and are fundamental to it being properly justified/sound. The GL Hearn projections used in the SHMA for Coventry and Warwickshire are used as the basis for the Plan but are now discredited by the may ONS population figures issued in May 2014.
The recent ONS figures are much lower than those used in the SHMA 15,313 rather 21,472, a fall of 6,159 persons or a 28.7% reduction. This is very significant in that it changes the numbers of dwellings that will be necessary; the amount of infrastructure needed to support the housing / population and reduces the amount of Greenfield needed to be taken for new allocations.
The reduction in population and required housing will also improve the 5 year housing supply position.
It is considered that the SHMA underestimates the future housing occupancy rate in the district (see statistics in full submission). This alongside the potential for minor density adjustments can also have an impact on the amount of housing required in Warwick District and could lower the numbers significantly.
Research undertaken by local campaign groups (supported by respected University of Warwick economists), shows conclusively that maintaining a housing target of 12900 by 2028 cannot be justified on the basis of the latest figures ( see power point slides in full submission).
A decision to continue to work to the Council's current housing target can only be based on the Leadership of Warwick District Council being determined to " go for growth" in the face of the communities wish for a plan that would do no more than meet the needs of natural growth with a modest allowance for inward migration.
To conclude / summarise
*Warwick's population projection is now 28.7% less than the figures used to formulate the consultation draft local plan. The Plan is therefore unsound based on incorrect/ inadequate data.
*All the other authorities in the Housing Market area are also showing similar reductions in their population projections, including Coventry.
*The method by which population is converted into the numbers of dwellings required needs better determination by calculation, using the known housing type and size to be included in the plan.
*The lower housing target will require the list of sites to be included in the plan to be reduced. In sustainability terms this will imply brownfield sites being put first and only including Greenfield where essential.
*To delay a revision of the 5 year housing supply calculation / requirement in light of the new evidence of a much lower need for housing would be neglectful.
*Dependent matters such as infrastructure needs and costs will then need to be matched to the new lower target.

Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 66981

Derbyniwyd: 03/07/2014

Ymatebydd: Mr David Ramsbottom

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

The overall forecast of housing need of 12900 is considered to be exaggerated. The ONS estimates have been revised downwards and suggest only 8,100 houses are needed to meet natural increase and inward migration to Warwick District. The SHMA suggests that occupancy rates of houses will fall significantly from 2.2. Such a decrease is unrealistic and the plan is therefore seeking to justify the provision of more houses than will actually be needed to house the target population.
There is already more than a five year supply of land ready for development. As ONS estimates have dropped less houses will be needed to meet the requirement for 5 years supply. Campaign groups have claimed that there is already a five year supply; the revised ONS estimates would appear to reinforce this position.
Population projections underpin the plan and are fundamental to it being properly justified/sound. The GL Hearn projections used in the SHMA for Coventry and Warwickshire are used as the basis for the Plan but are now discredited by the may ONS population figures issued in May 2014.
The recent ONS figures are much lower than those used in the SHMA 15,313 rather 21,472, a fall of 6,159 persons or a 28.7% reduction. This is very significant in that it changes the numbers of dwellings that will be necessary; the amount of infrastructure needed to support the housing / population and reduces the amount of Greenfield needed to be taken for new allocations.
The reduction in population and required housing will also improve the 5 year housing supply position.
It is considered that the SHMA underestimates the future housing occupancy rate in the district (see statistics in full submission). This alongside the potential for minor density adjustments can also have an impact on the amount of housing required in Warwick District and could lower the numbers significantly.
Research undertaken by local campaign groups (supported by respected University of Warwick economists), shows conclusively that maintaining a housing target of 12900 by 2028 cannot be justified on the basis of the latest figures ( see power point slides in full submission).
A decision to continue to work to the Council's current housing target can only be based on the Leadership of Warwick District Council being determined to " go for growth" in the face of the communities wish for a plan that would do no more than meet the needs of natural growth with a modest allowance for inward migration.
To conclude / summarise
*Warwick's population projection is now 28.7% less than the figures used to formulate the consultation draft local plan. The Plan is therefore unsound based on incorrect/ inadequate data.
*All the other authorities in the Housing Market area are also showing similar reductions in their population projections, including Coventry.
*The method by which population is converted into the numbers of dwellings required needs better determination by calculation, using the known housing type and size to be included in the plan.
*The lower housing target will require the list of sites to be included in the plan to be reduced. In sustainability terms this will imply brownfield sites being put first and only including Greenfield where essential.
*To delay a revision of the 5 year housing supply calculation / requirement in light of the new evidence of a much lower need for housing would be neglectful.
*Dependent matters such as infrastructure needs and costs will then need to be matched to the new lower target.

Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 66989

Derbyniwyd: 03/07/2014

Ymatebydd: Mr David Drinkhall

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

The overall forecast of housing need of 12900 is considered to be exaggerated. The ONS estimates have been revised downwards and suggest only 8,100 houses are needed to meet natural increase and inward migration to Warwick District. The SHMA suggests that occupancy rates of houses will fall significantly from 2.2. Such a decrease is unrealistic and the plan is therefore seeking to justify the provision of more houses than will actually be needed to house the target population.
There is already more than a five year supply of land ready for development. As ONS estimates have dropped less houses will be needed to meet the requirement for 5 years supply. Campaign groups have claimed that there is already a five year supply; the revised ONS estimates would appear to reinforce this position.
Population projections underpin the plan and are fundamental to it being properly justified/sound. The GL Hearn projections used in the SHMA for Coventry and Warwickshire are used as the basis for the Plan but are now discredited by the may ONS population figures issued in May 2014.
The recent ONS figures are much lower than those used in the SHMA 15,313 rather 21,472, a fall of 6,159 persons or a 28.7% reduction. This is very significant in that it changes the numbers of dwellings that will be necessary; the amount of infrastructure needed to support the housing / population and reduces the amount of Greenfield needed to be taken for new allocations.
The reduction in population and required housing will also improve the 5 year housing supply position.
It is considered that the SHMA underestimates the future housing occupancy rate in the district (see statistics in full submission). This alongside the potential for minor density adjustments can also have an impact on the amount of housing required in Warwick District and could lower the numbers significantly.
Research undertaken by local campaign groups (supported by respected University of Warwick economists), shows conclusively that maintaining a housing target of 12900 by 2028 cannot be justified on the basis of the latest figures ( see power point slides in full submission).
A decision to continue to work to the Council's current housing target can only be based on the Leadership of Warwick District Council being determined to " go for growth" in the face of the communities wish for a plan that would do no more than meet the needs of natural growth with a modest allowance for inward migration.
To conclude / summarise
*Warwick's population projection is now 28.7% less than the figures used to formulate the consultation draft local plan. The Plan is therefore unsound based on incorrect/ inadequate data.
*All the other authorities in the Housing Market area are also showing similar reductions in their population projections, including Coventry.
*The method by which population is converted into the numbers of dwellings required needs better determination by calculation, using the known housing type and size to be included in the plan.
*The lower housing target will require the list of sites to be included in the plan to be reduced. In sustainability terms this will imply brownfield sites being put first and only including Greenfield where essential.
*To delay a revision of the 5 year housing supply calculation / requirement in light of the new evidence of a much lower need for housing would be neglectful.
*Dependent matters such as infrastructure needs and costs will then need to be matched to the new lower target.

Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 66997

Derbyniwyd: 03/07/2014

Ymatebydd: Ian Frost

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

The overall forecast of housing need of 12900 is considered to be exaggerated. The ONS estimates have been revised downwards and suggest only 8,100 houses are needed to meet natural increase and inward migration to Warwick District. The SHMA suggests that occupancy rates of houses will fall significantly from 2.2. Such a decrease is unrealistic and the plan is therefore seeking to justify the provision of more houses than will actually be needed to house the target population.
There is already more than a five year supply of land ready for development. As ONS estimates have dropped less houses will be needed to meet the requirement for 5 years supply. Campaign groups have claimed that there is already a five year supply; the revised ONS estimates would appear to reinforce this position.
Population projections underpin the plan and are fundamental to it being properly justified/sound. The GL Hearn projections used in the SHMA for Coventry and Warwickshire are used as the basis for the Plan but are now discredited by the may ONS population figures issued in May 2014.
The recent ONS figures are much lower than those used in the SHMA 15,313 rather 21,472, a fall of 6,159 persons or a 28.7% reduction. This is very significant in that it changes the numbers of dwellings that will be necessary; the amount of infrastructure needed to support the housing / population and reduces the amount of Greenfield needed to be taken for new allocations.
The reduction in population and required housing will also improve the 5 year housing supply position.
It is considered that the SHMA underestimates the future housing occupancy rate in the district (see statistics in full submission). This alongside the potential for minor density adjustments can also have an impact on the amount of housing required in Warwick District and could lower the numbers significantly.
Research undertaken by local campaign groups (supported by respected University of Warwick economists), shows conclusively that maintaining a housing target of 12900 by 2028 cannot be justified on the basis of the latest figures ( see power point slides in full submission).
A decision to continue to work to the Council's current housing target can only be based on the Leadership of Warwick District Council being determined to " go for growth" in the face of the communities wish for a plan that would do no more than meet the needs of natural growth with a modest allowance for inward migration.
To conclude / summarise
*Warwick's population projection is now 28.7% less than the figures used to formulate the consultation draft local plan. The Plan is therefore unsound based on incorrect/ inadequate data.
*All the other authorities in the Housing Market area are also showing similar reductions in their population projections, including Coventry.
*The method by which population is converted into the numbers of dwellings required needs better determination by calculation, using the known housing type and size to be included in the plan.
*The lower housing target will require the list of sites to be included in the plan to be reduced. In sustainability terms this will imply brownfield sites being put first and only including Greenfield where essential.
*To delay a revision of the 5 year housing supply calculation / requirement in light of the new evidence of a much lower need for housing would be neglectful.
*Dependent matters such as infrastructure needs and costs will then need to be matched to the new lower target.

Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 67005

Derbyniwyd: 03/07/2014

Ymatebydd: Mr Geoff Reynolds

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

The overall forecast of housing need of 12900 is considered to be exaggerated. The ONS estimates have been revised downwards and suggest only 8,100 houses are needed to meet natural increase and inward migration to Warwick District. The SHMA suggests that occupancy rates of houses will fall significantly from 2.2. Such a decrease is unrealistic and the plan is therefore seeking to justify the provision of more houses than will actually be needed to house the target population.
There is already more than a five year supply of land ready for development. As ONS estimates have dropped less houses will be needed to meet the requirement for 5 years supply. Campaign groups have claimed that there is already a five year supply; the revised ONS estimates would appear to reinforce this position.
Population projections underpin the plan and are fundamental to it being properly justified/sound. The GL Hearn projections used in the SHMA for Coventry and Warwickshire are used as the basis for the Plan but are now discredited by the may ONS population figures issued in May 2014.
The recent ONS figures are much lower than those used in the SHMA 15,313 rather 21,472, a fall of 6,159 persons or a 28.7% reduction. This is very significant in that it changes the numbers of dwellings that will be necessary; the amount of infrastructure needed to support the housing / population and reduces the amount of Greenfield needed to be taken for new allocations.
The reduction in population and required housing will also improve the 5 year housing supply position.
It is considered that the SHMA underestimates the future housing occupancy rate in the district (see statistics in full submission). This alongside the potential for minor density adjustments can also have an impact on the amount of housing required in Warwick District and could lower the numbers significantly.
Research undertaken by local campaign groups (supported by respected University of Warwick economists), shows conclusively that maintaining a housing target of 12900 by 2028 cannot be justified on the basis of the latest figures ( see power point slides in full submission).
A decision to continue to work to the Council's current housing target can only be based on the Leadership of Warwick District Council being determined to " go for growth" in the face of the communities wish for a plan that would do no more than meet the needs of natural growth with a modest allowance for inward migration.
To conclude / summarise
*Warwick's population projection is now 28.7% less than the figures used to formulate the consultation draft local plan. The Plan is therefore unsound based on incorrect/ inadequate data.
*All the other authorities in the Housing Market area are also showing similar reductions in their population projections, including Coventry.
*The method by which population is converted into the numbers of dwellings required needs better determination by calculation, using the known housing type and size to be included in the plan.
*The lower housing target will require the list of sites to be included in the plan to be reduced. In sustainability terms this will imply brownfield sites being put first and only including Greenfield where essential.
*To delay a revision of the 5 year housing supply calculation / requirement in light of the new evidence of a much lower need for housing would be neglectful.
*Dependent matters such as infrastructure needs and costs will then need to be matched to the new lower target.

Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 67013

Derbyniwyd: 03/07/2014

Ymatebydd: John Griffiths

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

The overall forecast of housing need of 12900 is considered to be exaggerated. The ONS estimates have been revised downwards and suggest only 8,100 houses are needed to meet natural increase and inward migration to Warwick District. The SHMA suggests that occupancy rates of houses will fall significantly from 2.2. Such a decrease is unrealistic and the plan is therefore seeking to justify the provision of more houses than will actually be needed to house the target population.
There is already more than a five year supply of land ready for development. As ONS estimates have dropped less houses will be needed to meet the requirement for 5 years supply. Campaign groups have claimed that there is already a five year supply; the revised ONS estimates would appear to reinforce this position.
Population projections underpin the plan and are fundamental to it being properly justified/sound. The GL Hearn projections used in the SHMA for Coventry and Warwickshire are used as the basis for the Plan but are now discredited by the may ONS population figures issued in May 2014.
The recent ONS figures are much lower than those used in the SHMA 15,313 rather 21,472, a fall of 6,159 persons or a 28.7% reduction. This is very significant in that it changes the numbers of dwellings that will be necessary; the amount of infrastructure needed to support the housing / population and reduces the amount of Greenfield needed to be taken for new allocations.
The reduction in population and required housing will also improve the 5 year housing supply position.
It is considered that the SHMA underestimates the future housing occupancy rate in the district (see statistics in full submission). This alongside the potential for minor density adjustments can also have an impact on the amount of housing required in Warwick District and could lower the numbers significantly.
Research undertaken by local campaign groups (supported by respected University of Warwick economists), shows conclusively that maintaining a housing target of 12900 by 2028 cannot be justified on the basis of the latest figures ( see power point slides in full submission).
A decision to continue to work to the Council's current housing target can only be based on the Leadership of Warwick District Council being determined to " go for growth" in the face of the communities wish for a plan that would do no more than meet the needs of natural growth with a modest allowance for inward migration.
To conclude / summarise
*Warwick's population projection is now 28.7% less than the figures used to formulate the consultation draft local plan. The Plan is therefore unsound based on incorrect/ inadequate data.
*All the other authorities in the Housing Market area are also showing similar reductions in their population projections, including Coventry.
*The method by which population is converted into the numbers of dwellings required needs better determination by calculation, using the known housing type and size to be included in the plan.
*The lower housing target will require the list of sites to be included in the plan to be reduced. In sustainability terms this will imply brownfield sites being put first and only including Greenfield where essential.
*To delay a revision of the 5 year housing supply calculation / requirement in light of the new evidence of a much lower need for housing would be neglectful.
*Dependent matters such as infrastructure needs and costs will then need to be matched to the new lower target.

Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 67021

Derbyniwyd: 03/07/2014

Ymatebydd: Justin Richards

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

The overall forecast of housing need of 12900 is considered to be exaggerated. The ONS estimates have been revised downwards and suggest only 8,100 houses are needed to meet natural increase and inward migration to Warwick District. The SHMA suggests that occupancy rates of houses will fall significantly from 2.2. Such a decrease is unrealistic and the plan is therefore seeking to justify the provision of more houses than will actually be needed to house the target population.
There is already more than a five year supply of land ready for development. As ONS estimates have dropped less houses will be needed to meet the requirement for 5 years supply. Campaign groups have claimed that there is already a five year supply; the revised ONS estimates would appear to reinforce this position.
Population projections underpin the plan and are fundamental to it being properly justified/sound. The GL Hearn projections used in the SHMA for Coventry and Warwickshire are used as the basis for the Plan but are now discredited by the may ONS population figures issued in May 2014.
The recent ONS figures are much lower than those used in the SHMA 15,313 rather 21,472, a fall of 6,159 persons or a 28.7% reduction. This is very significant in that it changes the numbers of dwellings that will be necessary; the amount of infrastructure needed to support the housing / population and reduces the amount of Greenfield needed to be taken for new allocations.
The reduction in population and required housing will also improve the 5 year housing supply position.
It is considered that the SHMA underestimates the future housing occupancy rate in the district (see statistics in full submission). This alongside the potential for minor density adjustments can also have an impact on the amount of housing required in Warwick District and could lower the numbers significantly.
Research undertaken by local campaign groups (supported by respected University of Warwick economists), shows conclusively that maintaining a housing target of 12900 by 2028 cannot be justified on the basis of the latest figures ( see power point slides in full submission).
A decision to continue to work to the Council's current housing target can only be based on the Leadership of Warwick District Council being determined to " go for growth" in the face of the communities wish for a plan that would do no more than meet the needs of natural growth with a modest allowance for inward migration.
To conclude / summarise
*Warwick's population projection is now 28.7% less than the figures used to formulate the consultation draft local plan. The Plan is therefore unsound based on incorrect/ inadequate data.
*All the other authorities in the Housing Market area are also showing similar reductions in their population projections, including Coventry.
*The method by which population is converted into the numbers of dwellings required needs better determination by calculation, using the known housing type and size to be included in the plan.
*The lower housing target will require the list of sites to be included in the plan to be reduced. In sustainability terms this will imply brownfield sites being put first and only including Greenfield where essential.
*To delay a revision of the 5 year housing supply calculation / requirement in light of the new evidence of a much lower need for housing would be neglectful.
*Dependent matters such as infrastructure needs and costs will then need to be matched to the new lower target.

Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 67029

Derbyniwyd: 03/07/2014

Ymatebydd: Louise Kalus

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

The overall forecast of housing need of 12900 is considered to be exaggerated. The ONS estimates have been revised downwards and suggest only 8,100 houses are needed to meet natural increase and inward migration to Warwick District. The SHMA suggests that occupancy rates of houses will fall significantly from 2.2. Such a decrease is unrealistic and the plan is therefore seeking to justify the provision of more houses than will actually be needed to house the target population.
There is already more than a five year supply of land ready for development. As ONS estimates have dropped less houses will be needed to meet the requirement for 5 years supply. Campaign groups have claimed that there is already a five year supply; the revised ONS estimates would appear to reinforce this position.
Population projections underpin the plan and are fundamental to it being properly justified/sound. The GL Hearn projections used in the SHMA for Coventry and Warwickshire are used as the basis for the Plan but are now discredited by the may ONS population figures issued in May 2014.
The recent ONS figures are much lower than those used in the SHMA 15,313 rather 21,472, a fall of 6,159 persons or a 28.7% reduction. This is very significant in that it changes the numbers of dwellings that will be necessary; the amount of infrastructure needed to support the housing / population and reduces the amount of Greenfield needed to be taken for new allocations.
The reduction in population and required housing will also improve the 5 year housing supply position.
It is considered that the SHMA underestimates the future housing occupancy rate in the district (see statistics in full submission). This alongside the potential for minor density adjustments can also have an impact on the amount of housing required in Warwick District and could lower the numbers significantly.
Research undertaken by local campaign groups (supported by respected University of Warwick economists), shows conclusively that maintaining a housing target of 12900 by 2028 cannot be justified on the basis of the latest figures ( see power point slides in full submission).
A decision to continue to work to the Council's current housing target can only be based on the Leadership of Warwick District Council being determined to " go for growth" in the face of the communities wish for a plan that would do no more than meet the needs of natural growth with a modest allowance for inward migration.
To conclude / summarise
*Warwick's population projection is now 28.7% less than the figures used to formulate the consultation draft local plan. The Plan is therefore unsound based on incorrect/ inadequate data.
*All the other authorities in the Housing Market area are also showing similar reductions in their population projections, including Coventry.
*The method by which population is converted into the numbers of dwellings required needs better determination by calculation, using the known housing type and size to be included in the plan.
*The lower housing target will require the list of sites to be included in the plan to be reduced. In sustainability terms this will imply brownfield sites being put first and only including Greenfield where essential.
*To delay a revision of the 5 year housing supply calculation / requirement in light of the new evidence of a much lower need for housing would be neglectful.
*Dependent matters such as infrastructure needs and costs will then need to be matched to the new lower target.

Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 67037

Derbyniwyd: 03/07/2014

Ymatebydd: Paul Kalus

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

The overall forecast of housing need of 12900 is considered to be exaggerated. The ONS estimates have been revised downwards and suggest only 8,100 houses are needed to meet natural increase and inward migration to Warwick District. The SHMA suggests that occupancy rates of houses will fall significantly from 2.2. Such a decrease is unrealistic and the plan is therefore seeking to justify the provision of more houses than will actually be needed to house the target population.
There is already more than a five year supply of land ready for development. As ONS estimates have dropped less houses will be needed to meet the requirement for 5 years supply. Campaign groups have claimed that there is already a five year supply; the revised ONS estimates would appear to reinforce this position.
Population projections underpin the plan and are fundamental to it being properly justified/sound. The GL Hearn projections used in the SHMA for Coventry and Warwickshire are used as the basis for the Plan but are now discredited by the may ONS population figures issued in May 2014.
The recent ONS figures are much lower than those used in the SHMA 15,313 rather 21,472, a fall of 6,159 persons or a 28.7% reduction. This is very significant in that it changes the numbers of dwellings that will be necessary; the amount of infrastructure needed to support the housing / population and reduces the amount of Greenfield needed to be taken for new allocations.
The reduction in population and required housing will also improve the 5 year housing supply position.
It is considered that the SHMA underestimates the future housing occupancy rate in the district (see statistics in full submission). This alongside the potential for minor density adjustments can also have an impact on the amount of housing required in Warwick District and could lower the numbers significantly.
Research undertaken by local campaign groups (supported by respected University of Warwick economists), shows conclusively that maintaining a housing target of 12900 by 2028 cannot be justified on the basis of the latest figures ( see power point slides in full submission).
A decision to continue to work to the Council's current housing target can only be based on the Leadership of Warwick District Council being determined to " go for growth" in the face of the communities wish for a plan that would do no more than meet the needs of natural growth with a modest allowance for inward migration.
To conclude / summarise
*Warwick's population projection is now 28.7% less than the figures used to formulate the consultation draft local plan. The Plan is therefore unsound based on incorrect/ inadequate data.
*All the other authorities in the Housing Market area are also showing similar reductions in their population projections, including Coventry.
*The method by which population is converted into the numbers of dwellings required needs better determination by calculation, using the known housing type and size to be included in the plan.
*The lower housing target will require the list of sites to be included in the plan to be reduced. In sustainability terms this will imply brownfield sites being put first and only including Greenfield where essential.
*To delay a revision of the 5 year housing supply calculation / requirement in light of the new evidence of a much lower need for housing would be neglectful.
*Dependent matters such as infrastructure needs and costs will then need to be matched to the new lower target.

Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 67045

Derbyniwyd: 03/07/2014

Ymatebydd: Mr Bernard Hollis

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

The overall forecast of housing need of 12900 is considered to be exaggerated. The ONS estimates have been revised downwards and suggest only 8,100 houses are needed to meet natural increase and inward migration to Warwick District. The SHMA suggests that occupancy rates of houses will fall significantly from 2.2. Such a decrease is unrealistic and the plan is therefore seeking to justify the provision of more houses than will actually be needed to house the target population.
There is already more than a five year supply of land ready for development. As ONS estimates have dropped less houses will be needed to meet the requirement for 5 years supply. Campaign groups have claimed that there is already a five year supply; the revised ONS estimates would appear to reinforce this position.
Population projections underpin the plan and are fundamental to it being properly justified/sound. The GL Hearn projections used in the SHMA for Coventry and Warwickshire are used as the basis for the Plan but are now discredited by the may ONS population figures issued in May 2014.
The recent ONS figures are much lower than those used in the SHMA 15,313 rather 21,472, a fall of 6,159 persons or a 28.7% reduction. This is very significant in that it changes the numbers of dwellings that will be necessary; the amount of infrastructure needed to support the housing / population and reduces the amount of Greenfield needed to be taken for new allocations.
The reduction in population and required housing will also improve the 5 year housing supply position.
It is considered that the SHMA underestimates the future housing occupancy rate in the district (see statistics in full submission). This alongside the potential for minor density adjustments can also have an impact on the amount of housing required in Warwick District and could lower the numbers significantly.
Research undertaken by local campaign groups (supported by respected University of Warwick economists), shows conclusively that maintaining a housing target of 12900 by 2028 cannot be justified on the basis of the latest figures ( see power point slides in full submission).
A decision to continue to work to the Council's current housing target can only be based on the Leadership of Warwick District Council being determined to " go for growth" in the face of the communities wish for a plan that would do no more than meet the needs of natural growth with a modest allowance for inward migration.
To conclude / summarise
*Warwick's population projection is now 28.7% less than the figures used to formulate the consultation draft local plan. The Plan is therefore unsound based on incorrect/ inadequate data.
*All the other authorities in the Housing Market area are also showing similar reductions in their population projections, including Coventry.
*The method by which population is converted into the numbers of dwellings required needs better determination by calculation, using the known housing type and size to be included in the plan.
*The lower housing target will require the list of sites to be included in the plan to be reduced. In sustainability terms this will imply brownfield sites being put first and only including Greenfield where essential.
*To delay a revision of the 5 year housing supply calculation / requirement in light of the new evidence of a much lower need for housing would be neglectful.
*Dependent matters such as infrastructure needs and costs will then need to be matched to the new lower target.

Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 67053

Derbyniwyd: 03/07/2014

Ymatebydd: Mr R Komarasinha

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

The overall forecast of housing need of 12900 is considered to be exaggerated. The ONS estimates have been revised downwards and suggest only 8,100 houses are needed to meet natural increase and inward migration to Warwick District. The SHMA suggests that occupancy rates of houses will fall significantly from 2.2. Such a decrease is unrealistic and the plan is therefore seeking to justify the provision of more houses than will actually be needed to house the target population.
There is already more than a five year supply of land ready for development. As ONS estimates have dropped less houses will be needed to meet the requirement for 5 years supply. Campaign groups have claimed that there is already a five year supply; the revised ONS estimates would appear to reinforce this position.
Population projections underpin the plan and are fundamental to it being properly justified/sound. The GL Hearn projections used in the SHMA for Coventry and Warwickshire are used as the basis for the Plan but are now discredited by the may ONS population figures issued in May 2014.
The recent ONS figures are much lower than those used in the SHMA 15,313 rather 21,472, a fall of 6,159 persons or a 28.7% reduction. This is very significant in that it changes the numbers of dwellings that will be necessary; the amount of infrastructure needed to support the housing / population and reduces the amount of Greenfield needed to be taken for new allocations.
The reduction in population and required housing will also improve the 5 year housing supply position.
It is considered that the SHMA underestimates the future housing occupancy rate in the district (see statistics in full submission). This alongside the potential for minor density adjustments can also have an impact on the amount of housing required in Warwick District and could lower the numbers significantly.
Research undertaken by local campaign groups (supported by respected University of Warwick economists), shows conclusively that maintaining a housing target of 12900 by 2028 cannot be justified on the basis of the latest figures ( see power point slides in full submission).
A decision to continue to work to the Council's current housing target can only be based on the Leadership of Warwick District Council being determined to " go for growth" in the face of the communities wish for a plan that would do no more than meet the needs of natural growth with a modest allowance for inward migration.
To conclude / summarise
*Warwick's population projection is now 28.7% less than the figures used to formulate the consultation draft local plan. The Plan is therefore unsound based on incorrect/ inadequate data.
*All the other authorities in the Housing Market area are also showing similar reductions in their population projections, including Coventry.
*The method by which population is converted into the numbers of dwellings required needs better determination by calculation, using the known housing type and size to be included in the plan.
*The lower housing target will require the list of sites to be included in the plan to be reduced. In sustainability terms this will imply brownfield sites being put first and only including Greenfield where essential.
*To delay a revision of the 5 year housing supply calculation / requirement in light of the new evidence of a much lower need for housing would be neglectful.
*Dependent matters such as infrastructure needs and costs will then need to be matched to the new lower target.

Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 67061

Derbyniwyd: 03/07/2014

Ymatebydd: Caroline Komarasinha

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

The overall forecast of housing need of 12900 is considered to be exaggerated. The ONS estimates have been revised downwards and suggest only 8,100 houses are needed to meet natural increase and inward migration to Warwick District. The SHMA suggests that occupancy rates of houses will fall significantly from 2.2. Such a decrease is unrealistic and the plan is therefore seeking to justify the provision of more houses than will actually be needed to house the target population.
There is already more than a five year supply of land ready for development. As ONS estimates have dropped less houses will be needed to meet the requirement for 5 years supply. Campaign groups have claimed that there is already a five year supply; the revised ONS estimates would appear to reinforce this position.
Population projections underpin the plan and are fundamental to it being properly justified/sound. The GL Hearn projections used in the SHMA for Coventry and Warwickshire are used as the basis for the Plan but are now discredited by the may ONS population figures issued in May 2014.
The recent ONS figures are much lower than those used in the SHMA 15,313 rather 21,472, a fall of 6,159 persons or a 28.7% reduction. This is very significant in that it changes the numbers of dwellings that will be necessary; the amount of infrastructure needed to support the housing / population and reduces the amount of Greenfield needed to be taken for new allocations.
The reduction in population and required housing will also improve the 5 year housing supply position.
It is considered that the SHMA underestimates the future housing occupancy rate in the district (see statistics in full submission). This alongside the potential for minor density adjustments can also have an impact on the amount of housing required in Warwick District and could lower the numbers significantly.
Research undertaken by local campaign groups (supported by respected University of Warwick economists), shows conclusively that maintaining a housing target of 12900 by 2028 cannot be justified on the basis of the latest figures ( see power point slides in full submission).
A decision to continue to work to the Council's current housing target can only be based on the Leadership of Warwick District Council being determined to " go for growth" in the face of the communities wish for a plan that would do no more than meet the needs of natural growth with a modest allowance for inward migration.
To conclude / summarise
*Warwick's population projection is now 28.7% less than the figures used to formulate the consultation draft local plan. The Plan is therefore unsound based on incorrect/ inadequate data.
*All the other authorities in the Housing Market area are also showing similar reductions in their population projections, including Coventry.
*The method by which population is converted into the numbers of dwellings required needs better determination by calculation, using the known housing type and size to be included in the plan.
*The lower housing target will require the list of sites to be included in the plan to be reduced. In sustainability terms this will imply brownfield sites being put first and only including Greenfield where essential.
*To delay a revision of the 5 year housing supply calculation / requirement in light of the new evidence of a much lower need for housing would be neglectful.
*Dependent matters such as infrastructure needs and costs will then need to be matched to the new lower target.

Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 67069

Derbyniwyd: 03/07/2014

Ymatebydd: Matthew Drinkhall

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

The overall forecast of housing need of 12900 is considered to be exaggerated. The ONS estimates have been revised downwards and suggest only 8,100 houses are needed to meet natural increase and inward migration to Warwick District. The SHMA suggests that occupancy rates of houses will fall significantly from 2.2. Such a decrease is unrealistic and the plan is therefore seeking to justify the provision of more houses than will actually be needed to house the target population.
There is already more than a five year supply of land ready for development. As ONS estimates have dropped less houses will be needed to meet the requirement for 5 years supply. Campaign groups have claimed that there is already a five year supply; the revised ONS estimates would appear to reinforce this position.
Population projections underpin the plan and are fundamental to it being properly justified/sound. The GL Hearn projections used in the SHMA for Coventry and Warwickshire are used as the basis for the Plan but are now discredited by the may ONS population figures issued in May 2014.
The recent ONS figures are much lower than those used in the SHMA 15,313 rather 21,472, a fall of 6,159 persons or a 28.7% reduction. This is very significant in that it changes the numbers of dwellings that will be necessary; the amount of infrastructure needed to support the housing / population and reduces the amount of Greenfield needed to be taken for new allocations.
The reduction in population and required housing will also improve the 5 year housing supply position.
It is considered that the SHMA underestimates the future housing occupancy rate in the district (see statistics in full submission). This alongside the potential for minor density adjustments can also have an impact on the amount of housing required in Warwick District and could lower the numbers significantly.
Research undertaken by local campaign groups (supported by respected University of Warwick economists), shows conclusively that maintaining a housing target of 12900 by 2028 cannot be justified on the basis of the latest figures ( see power point slides in full submission).
A decision to continue to work to the Council's current housing target can only be based on the Leadership of Warwick District Council being determined to " go for growth" in the face of the communities wish for a plan that would do no more than meet the needs of natural growth with a modest allowance for inward migration.
To conclude / summarise
*Warwick's population projection is now 28.7% less than the figures used to formulate the consultation draft local plan. The Plan is therefore unsound based on incorrect/ inadequate data.
*All the other authorities in the Housing Market area are also showing similar reductions in their population projections, including Coventry.
*The method by which population is converted into the numbers of dwellings required needs better determination by calculation, using the known housing type and size to be included in the plan.
*The lower housing target will require the list of sites to be included in the plan to be reduced. In sustainability terms this will imply brownfield sites being put first and only including Greenfield where essential.
*To delay a revision of the 5 year housing supply calculation / requirement in light of the new evidence of a much lower need for housing would be neglectful.
*Dependent matters such as infrastructure needs and costs will then need to be matched to the new lower target.

Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 67077

Derbyniwyd: 03/07/2014

Ymatebydd: Oliver Lane

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

The overall forecast of housing need of 12900 is considered to be exaggerated. The ONS estimates have been revised downwards and suggest only 8,100 houses are needed to meet natural increase and inward migration to Warwick District. The SHMA suggests that occupancy rates of houses will fall significantly from 2.2. Such a decrease is unrealistic and the plan is therefore seeking to justify the provision of more houses than will actually be needed to house the target population.
There is already more than a five year supply of land ready for development. As ONS estimates have dropped less houses will be needed to meet the requirement for 5 years supply. Campaign groups have claimed that there is already a five year supply; the revised ONS estimates would appear to reinforce this position.
Population projections underpin the plan and are fundamental to it being properly justified/sound. The GL Hearn projections used in the SHMA for Coventry and Warwickshire are used as the basis for the Plan but are now discredited by the may ONS population figures issued in May 2014.
The recent ONS figures are much lower than those used in the SHMA 15,313 rather 21,472, a fall of 6,159 persons or a 28.7% reduction. This is very significant in that it changes the numbers of dwellings that will be necessary; the amount of infrastructure needed to support the housing / population and reduces the amount of Greenfield needed to be taken for new allocations.
The reduction in population and required housing will also improve the 5 year housing supply position.
It is considered that the SHMA underestimates the future housing occupancy rate in the district (see statistics in full submission). This alongside the potential for minor density adjustments can also have an impact on the amount of housing required in Warwick District and could lower the numbers significantly.
Research undertaken by local campaign groups (supported by respected University of Warwick economists), shows conclusively that maintaining a housing target of 12900 by 2028 cannot be justified on the basis of the latest figures ( see power point slides in full submission).
A decision to continue to work to the Council's current housing target can only be based on the Leadership of Warwick District Council being determined to " go for growth" in the face of the communities wish for a plan that would do no more than meet the needs of natural growth with a modest allowance for inward migration.
To conclude / summarise
*Warwick's population projection is now 28.7% less than the figures used to formulate the consultation draft local plan. The Plan is therefore unsound based on incorrect/ inadequate data.
*All the other authorities in the Housing Market area are also showing similar reductions in their population projections, including Coventry.
*The method by which population is converted into the numbers of dwellings required needs better determination by calculation, using the known housing type and size to be included in the plan.
*The lower housing target will require the list of sites to be included in the plan to be reduced. In sustainability terms this will imply brownfield sites being put first and only including Greenfield where essential.
*To delay a revision of the 5 year housing supply calculation / requirement in light of the new evidence of a much lower need for housing would be neglectful.
*Dependent matters such as infrastructure needs and costs will then need to be matched to the new lower target.

Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 67085

Derbyniwyd: 03/07/2014

Ymatebydd: Ms Helen Maclagan

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

The overall forecast of housing need of 12900 is considered to be exaggerated. The ONS estimates have been revised downwards and suggest only 8,100 houses are needed to meet natural increase and inward migration to Warwick District. The SHMA suggests that occupancy rates of houses will fall significantly from 2.2. Such a decrease is unrealistic and the plan is therefore seeking to justify the provision of more houses than will actually be needed to house the target population.
There is already more than a five year supply of land ready for development. As ONS estimates have dropped less houses will be needed to meet the requirement for 5 years supply. Campaign groups have claimed that there is already a five year supply; the revised ONS estimates would appear to reinforce this position.
Population projections underpin the plan and are fundamental to it being properly justified/sound. The GL Hearn projections used in the SHMA for Coventry and Warwickshire are used as the basis for the Plan but are now discredited by the may ONS population figures issued in May 2014.
The recent ONS figures are much lower than those used in the SHMA 15,313 rather 21,472, a fall of 6,159 persons or a 28.7% reduction. This is very significant in that it changes the numbers of dwellings that will be necessary; the amount of infrastructure needed to support the housing / population and reduces the amount of Greenfield needed to be taken for new allocations.
The reduction in population and required housing will also improve the 5 year housing supply position.
It is considered that the SHMA underestimates the future housing occupancy rate in the district (see statistics in full submission). This alongside the potential for minor density adjustments can also have an impact on the amount of housing required in Warwick District and could lower the numbers significantly.
Research undertaken by local campaign groups (supported by respected University of Warwick economists), shows conclusively that maintaining a housing target of 12900 by 2028 cannot be justified on the basis of the latest figures ( see power point slides in full submission).
A decision to continue to work to the Council's current housing target can only be based on the Leadership of Warwick District Council being determined to " go for growth" in the face of the communities wish for a plan that would do no more than meet the needs of natural growth with a modest allowance for inward migration.
To conclude / summarise
*Warwick's population projection is now 28.7% less than the figures used to formulate the consultation draft local plan. The Plan is therefore unsound based on incorrect/ inadequate data.
*All the other authorities in the Housing Market area are also showing similar reductions in their population projections, including Coventry.
*The method by which population is converted into the numbers of dwellings required needs better determination by calculation, using the known housing type and size to be included in the plan.
*The lower housing target will require the list of sites to be included in the plan to be reduced. In sustainability terms this will imply brownfield sites being put first and only including Greenfield where essential.
*To delay a revision of the 5 year housing supply calculation / requirement in light of the new evidence of a much lower need for housing would be neglectful.
*Dependent matters such as infrastructure needs and costs will then need to be matched to the new lower target.

Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 67093

Derbyniwyd: 03/07/2014

Ymatebydd: Mr and Mrs J Pennington

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

The overall forecast of housing need of 12900 is considered to be exaggerated. The ONS estimates have been revised downwards and suggest only 8,100 houses are needed to meet natural increase and inward migration to Warwick District. The SHMA suggests that occupancy rates of houses will fall significantly from 2.2. Such a decrease is unrealistic and the plan is therefore seeking to justify the provision of more houses than will actually be needed to house the target population.
There is already more than a five year supply of land ready for development. As ONS estimates have dropped less houses will be needed to meet the requirement for 5 years supply. Campaign groups have claimed that there is already a five year supply; the revised ONS estimates would appear to reinforce this position.
Population projections underpin the plan and are fundamental to it being properly justified/sound. The GL Hearn projections used in the SHMA for Coventry and Warwickshire are used as the basis for the Plan but are now discredited by the may ONS population figures issued in May 2014.
The recent ONS figures are much lower than those used in the SHMA 15,313 rather 21,472, a fall of 6,159 persons or a 28.7% reduction. This is very significant in that it changes the numbers of dwellings that will be necessary; the amount of infrastructure needed to support the housing / population and reduces the amount of Greenfield needed to be taken for new allocations.
The reduction in population and required housing will also improve the 5 year housing supply position.
It is considered that the SHMA underestimates the future housing occupancy rate in the district (see statistics in full submission). This alongside the potential for minor density adjustments can also have an impact on the amount of housing required in Warwick District and could lower the numbers significantly.
Research undertaken by local campaign groups (supported by respected University of Warwick economists), shows conclusively that maintaining a housing target of 12900 by 2028 cannot be justified on the basis of the latest figures ( see power point slides in full submission).
A decision to continue to work to the Council's current housing target can only be based on the Leadership of Warwick District Council being determined to " go for growth" in the face of the communities wish for a plan that would do no more than meet the needs of natural growth with a modest allowance for inward migration.
To conclude / summarise
*Warwick's population projection is now 28.7% less than the figures used to formulate the consultation draft local plan. The Plan is therefore unsound based on incorrect/ inadequate data.
*All the other authorities in the Housing Market area are also showing similar reductions in their population projections, including Coventry.
*The method by which population is converted into the numbers of dwellings required needs better determination by calculation, using the known housing type and size to be included in the plan.
*The lower housing target will require the list of sites to be included in the plan to be reduced. In sustainability terms this will imply brownfield sites being put first and only including Greenfield where essential.
*To delay a revision of the 5 year housing supply calculation / requirement in light of the new evidence of a much lower need for housing would be neglectful.
*Dependent matters such as infrastructure needs and costs will then need to be matched to the new lower target.

Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 67101

Derbyniwyd: 03/07/2014

Ymatebydd: Mr Peter Lamb

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

The overall forecast of housing need of 12900 is considered to be exaggerated. The ONS estimates have been revised downwards and suggest only 8,100 houses are needed to meet natural increase and inward migration to Warwick District. The SHMA suggests that occupancy rates of houses will fall significantly from 2.2. Such a decrease is unrealistic and the plan is therefore seeking to justify the provision of more houses than will actually be needed to house the target population.
There is already more than a five year supply of land ready for development. As ONS estimates have dropped less houses will be needed to meet the requirement for 5 years supply. Campaign groups have claimed that there is already a five year supply; the revised ONS estimates would appear to reinforce this position.
Population projections underpin the plan and are fundamental to it being properly justified/sound. The GL Hearn projections used in the SHMA for Coventry and Warwickshire are used as the basis for the Plan but are now discredited by the may ONS population figures issued in May 2014.
The recent ONS figures are much lower than those used in the SHMA 15,313 rather 21,472, a fall of 6,159 persons or a 28.7% reduction. This is very significant in that it changes the numbers of dwellings that will be necessary; the amount of infrastructure needed to support the housing / population and reduces the amount of Greenfield needed to be taken for new allocations.
The reduction in population and required housing will also improve the 5 year housing supply position.
It is considered that the SHMA underestimates the future housing occupancy rate in the district (see statistics in full submission). This alongside the potential for minor density adjustments can also have an impact on the amount of housing required in Warwick District and could lower the numbers significantly.
Research undertaken by local campaign groups (supported by respected University of Warwick economists), shows conclusively that maintaining a housing target of 12900 by 2028 cannot be justified on the basis of the latest figures ( see power point slides in full submission).
A decision to continue to work to the Council's current housing target can only be based on the Leadership of Warwick District Council being determined to " go for growth" in the face of the communities wish for a plan that would do no more than meet the needs of natural growth with a modest allowance for inward migration.
To conclude / summarise
*Warwick's population projection is now 28.7% less than the figures used to formulate the consultation draft local plan. The Plan is therefore unsound based on incorrect/ inadequate data.
*All the other authorities in the Housing Market area are also showing similar reductions in their population projections, including Coventry.
*The method by which population is converted into the numbers of dwellings required needs better determination by calculation, using the known housing type and size to be included in the plan.
*The lower housing target will require the list of sites to be included in the plan to be reduced. In sustainability terms this will imply brownfield sites being put first and only including Greenfield where essential.
*To delay a revision of the 5 year housing supply calculation / requirement in light of the new evidence of a much lower need for housing would be neglectful.
*Dependent matters such as infrastructure needs and costs will then need to be matched to the new lower target.

Gwrthwynebu

ID sylw: 67109

Derbyniwyd: 03/07/2014

Ymatebydd: Sarah Hunt

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

The overall forecast of housing need of 12900 is considered to be exaggerated. The ONS estimates have been revised downwards and suggest only 8,100 houses are needed to meet natural increase and inward migration to Warwick District. The SHMA suggests that occupancy rates of houses will fall significantly from 2.2. Such a decrease is unrealistic and the plan is therefore seeking to justify the provision of more houses than will actually be needed to house the target population.
There is already more than a five year supply of land ready for development. As ONS estimates have dropped less houses will be needed to meet the requirement for 5 years supply. Campaign groups have claimed that there is already a five year supply; the revised ONS estimates would appear to reinforce this position.
Population projections underpin the plan and are fundamental to it being properly justified/sound. The GL Hearn projections used in the SHMA for Coventry and Warwickshire are used as the basis for the Plan but are now discredited by the may ONS population figures issued in May 2014.
The recent ONS figures are much lower than those used in the SHMA 15,313 rather 21,472, a fall of 6,159 persons or a 28.7% reduction. This is very significant in that it changes the numbers of dwellings that will be necessary; the amount of infrastructure needed to support the housing / population and reduces the amount of Greenfield needed to be taken for new allocations.
The reduction in population and required housing will also improve the 5 year housing supply position.
It is considered that the SHMA underestimates the future housing occupancy rate in the district (see statistics in full submission). This alongside the potential for minor density adjustments can also have an impact on the amount of housing required in Warwick District and could lower the numbers significantly.
Research undertaken by local campaign groups (supported by respected University of Warwick economists), shows conclusively that maintaining a housing target of 12900 by 2028 cannot be justified on the basis of the latest figures ( see power point slides in full submission).
A decision to continue to work to the Council's current housing target can only be based on the Leadership of Warwick District Council being determined to " go for growth" in the face of the communities wish for a plan that would do no more than meet the needs of natural growth with a modest allowance for inward migration.
To conclude / summarise
*Warwick's population projection is now 28.7% less than the figures used to formulate the consultation draft local plan. The Plan is therefore unsound based on incorrect/ inadequate data.
*All the other authorities in the Housing Market area are also showing similar reductions in their population projections, including Coventry.
*The method by which population is converted into the numbers of dwellings required needs better determination by calculation, using the known housing type and size to be included in the plan.
*The lower housing target will require the list of sites to be included in the plan to be reduced. In sustainability terms this will imply brownfield sites being put first and only including Greenfield where essential.
*To delay a revision of the 5 year housing supply calculation / requirement in light of the new evidence of a much lower need for housing would be neglectful.
*Dependent matters such as infrastructure needs and costs will then need to be matched to the new lower target.