Issue and Options 2023
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The Honeybourne rail line should be protected, and indeed every effort should be made to reopen it. Road-building, however, is a mobility solution that belongs to the past. Building more roads, and widening existing roads, leads to more driving, and takes people away from alternative modes of transport. Congestion levels are thus reestablished in the medium to long term, with more cars on the road, as the academic literature on induced road travel shows. New solutions are needed for a net zero age.
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It is clear that the 5th growth option should be discarded. There is not that much between the others options, and there is presumably a margin of error in the projections. They may however be of use to the Councils in identifying what is good with each approach. With that in mind, it is interesting that the 4th growth option, for sustainable travel and economy, which would seem designed to select the best of both worlds, is the worst performing of the 4 serious approaches (excluding the 5th). Unfortunately the emissions estimation does not explain why this is - what, specifically, is the danger the Councils should be looking to avoid here? The emissions estimation seems to be based on current government policy. However, we might hope that government policy will be improved, e.g. with regard to provision of insulation and subsidisation of public transport. It would possibly be helpful for the Councils in choosing between the different options, to work with a national environmental organisation like Friends of the Earth, to identify a range of national policies that might make a big difference to the existing trajectories, and then to model the 5 different growth options again with those policies in mind. That would allow the Councils to assess each growth option against both pessimistic and optimistic scenarios for national leadership, and might (or might not) provide for a clearer distinction between some of the options.
