Issue and Options 2023
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Results for Keep Our Green Belt Green, Coventry and Warwickshire search
New searchHS2 is not a railway corridor that serves South Warwickshire; land in this corridor should not be seen area of potential spatial growth.
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Q-E7.1: Please select the option which is most appropriate for South Warwickshire Option E7.1a: Include a policy directing employment to the Core Opportunity Area Option E7.1b: Do not include a policy directing employment to the Core Opportunity Area Answer: E7.1b: Do not include a policy directing employment to the Core Opportunity Area – which is already highly congested and polluted, in the area of Warwick University, . Focussing in this area, would erase the slim remaining gap between Coventry and Kenilworth.
1. Yes, a trend based approach should be adopted in place of the 2014 projections, which were completely discredited by the Census. But these should be real historic trends, not modelled trends, and should have no link to ONS projections. 2. No. The HEDNA is NOT a reasonable basis for identifying future housing needs in the area, for the reasons stated above and below. [see Q-H1-1 above] 1. Births and Deaths are not adequately and correctly death with – Given that ICENI has adjusted fertility rates upward, this will worsen the mistakes made in the SNPP relating to natural change. Actual births have been far below what ONS have predicted. [see above Q-H1-1] Extrapolating births from the last 10 years, will give the best result with births. Similarly for deaths. 2. Migration, which is a major source of error, in the ONS forecasts,[ie the SNPP] , has not been sufficiently analysed. In particular, student movements need to be identified from HESA data, HESA graduate destimations surveys, the census, and exit checks data. In 2014/15, the SNPP underestimated the number of students leaving the area, mainly to go overseas, by at least 3,500-4000 in a single year. In 2018/19, the SNPP underestimated the numbers of students leaving Coventry – by 5,500-6000. [this analysis is derived from the Exit Checks Data which found that 96% of international non EU students leave t he country promptly after graduation, and of those that return, 85% leave Coventry after graduation [from the Destinations Survey] To come to an accurate model, a new assessment needs explicitly to model student movements, from available data. 3. We also clearly need to understand how much student accommodation has been included in completions over the last 10 years – varying formulae have been used [sometimes 1 dwelling for each unit with a kitchen which could house 4-8 persons; sometimes 1 dwelling for each 2.5 student residents] - , because future growth will not need to repeat this provision. The needs for family type accommodation will be less than suggested by the gross completions over the last 10 years. It is our estimate, that in the last 10 years in Coventry, roughly 5000 dwellings have been student units in purpose built accommodation. Actual need for family homes, will be less than the gross figures for the last 10 years. 4. The HEDNA assumes requirements which no longer apply, since the letter of 5 Dec 2022 from the Secretary of State to MPs. The letter removed the duty to cooperate, removed the requirement of the standard method, removed the uplift for 20 large cities [locally Birmingham and Coventry] removed the 5 year land supply requirement. The local plan should explicitly enshrine these freedoms in the new local plan and state that housing needs from outside Warwickshire will only be accepted on a voluntary basis by the local authorities, on a case by case consideration. The Local Plan [and the HEDNA] should state that there is no duty to accept unmet housing need from Coventry, Birmingham, or any other local authority.
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The letter from the Secretary of State of 5 Dec 2022 to Conservative MPs removed the duty to cooperate, removed the requirement of the standard method, removed the 5 year land supply requirement. The local plan should explicitly enshrine these freedoms in the new local plan and state that housing needs from outside Warwickshire will only be accepted on a voluntary basis by the local authorities, on a case by case basis.
