BASE HEADER

DS6 Level of Housing Growth

Yn dangos sylwadau a ffurflenni 61 i 89 o 89

Gwrthwynebu

Publication Draft

ID sylw: 66352

Derbyniwyd: 27/06/2014

Ymatebydd: Miss Emma Bromley

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

The proposed level of housing is too high and is based on unreliable evidence. New ONS forecasts suggest a lower level of population growth for the District than is being planned for. WDC have used a very low average household size to ensure a higher housing requirement. The census shows a much higher household size than WDC have used. The publication draft is no longer up to date.

All authorities within the HMA are showing similar reductions in projected population growth, including Coventry if you allow for the temporary student bulge. A lower housing target combined with use of brownfield sites would mean greenfield sites would only be included where a essential.
A lower housing target would help to resolve the issue with the 5 year supply of housing and infrastructure provision would be easier to resolve

There is already a 5 year supply in the District which means application can be resisted until the Local Plan process has run its course.

Atodiadau:

Gwrthwynebu

Publication Draft

ID sylw: 66356

Derbyniwyd: 27/06/2014

Ymatebydd: Mr & Mrs Peter & Linda Bromley

Nifer y bobl: 2

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

The proposed level of housing is too high and is based on unreliable evidence. New ONS forecasts suggest a lower level of population growth for the District than is being planned for. WDC have used a very low average household size to ensure a higher housing requirement. The census shows a much higher household size than WDC have used. The publication draft is no longer up to date.

All authorities within the HMA are showing similar reductions in projected population growth, including Coventry if you allow for the temporary student bulge. A lower housing target combined with use of brownfield sites would mean greenfield sites would only be included where a essential.
A lower housing target would help to resolve the issue with the 5 year supply of housing and infrastructure provision would be easier to resolve

Atodiadau:

Gwrthwynebu

Publication Draft

ID sylw: 66365

Derbyniwyd: 25/06/2014

Ymatebydd: The Leamington Society

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Heb nodi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

The population projections on which the plan is based are out of date. The 2012 ONS projections show a lower population growth. This is also true for most neighbouring districts with the exception of Coventry. If WDC continue with their plans to build homes, this will mean the homes are built in the wrong place.

Projections in population growth in Coventry are uncertain due to volatile inward migration from abroad. The ONS figures for Coventry represent 1.2% increase per year which implausibly large in comparison with national picture and other cities. This should not therefore be used to justify building homes in Warwick.

The latest ONs projections provide the best basis for the Local Plan, however these demonstrate that the Plan is unsound as they indicate the population is projected to be over 6000 fewer than those on which the Plan is based.
The need for additional homes is sensitive to average household size. The Plan assumes 2.181 by 2029 on the basis that the trend will decrease. However the are conflicting possible trends and this trend is not supported by the 2001 and 2011 census data.
12,860 is therefore an excessive figure and even if the ave. household size is 2.181 this is 2760 more dwellings than are needed.

Atodiadau:

Gwrthwynebu

Publication Draft

ID sylw: 66376

Derbyniwyd: 23/06/2014

Ymatebydd: Mrs Elaine Kemp

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Heb nodi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

The housing taregt is based on poor quality data. Alternative assessments have indicated a requirement of around 5500. Given pressure from developers it would be prudent to go for the lower figure. This could be revised upwards should the need be proven. the recent ONs projections show a lower level of growth than had previously been indicated. this indicates the difficulty in makiing predictions and therefore the data should be applied cautiously.

The proposals will lead to increased congestion, loss of countryside, burden on infrastructure and a fundamental change to the character of the area. It will do nothing to better the lives of present or future generations.

Atodiadau:

Gwrthwynebu

Publication Draft

ID sylw: 66385

Derbyniwyd: 27/06/2014

Ymatebydd: Warwick Town Council

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Cadarn? Nac Ydi

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Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

A housing need of almost 13,000 homes, has not been justified, for the latest ONS projections demonstrate that the Draft local Plan is based upon projections within the JSHMA which are entirely suspect.

The population projection from ONS is 28.7% below the JSHMA and the apparent arbitrary figure of 1.661 persons per household is also incorrect, for household numbers have not reduced from the 2.294 household figures, in the 2011 census.

The District Council's determination to go for growth does not meet local needs, but seeks to maximise future financial advantage for the Council, no matter how important local green fields are to the local community.

Atodiadau:

Gwrthwynebu

Publication Draft

ID sylw: 66393

Derbyniwyd: 27/06/2014

Ymatebydd: Cllr Elizabeth Higgins

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Ydi

Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

Housing need forecast of 12,900 is exaggerated.

There is a 30% drop in the expected numbers of people and, therefore, houses, needed over the next 20 years.

Gwrthwynebu

Publication Draft

ID sylw: 66412

Derbyniwyd: 27/06/2014

Ymatebydd: Hazel and Robin Fryer

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Nac Ydi

Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

The level of housing growth is based on an arbitrary selection of growth predictions which have now been shown to be not justified by the latest ONS projections. The local plan needs to be revised downward to be sound. The statement that the Council may wish to revise the figures upwards to accomodate the overspill from other areas undermines the local plan process. The duty to cooperate across the districts does not stipulate that the area must sacrifice its environment to satisfy its neighbours. The omission of the green belt at Thickthorn must be justified by demonstrating exceptional circumstances. The insensitive zoning approach to this intrusion into the green belt should be revised to a more environmentally sensitive approach.

Atodiadau:

Gwrthwynebu

Publication Draft

ID sylw: 66419

Derbyniwyd: 27/06/2014

Ymatebydd: Sharba Homes Group

Asiant : PJPlanning

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Heb nodi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

The document is based on an estimated requirement for 12,300 dwellings over the plan period. The latest SHMA puts the assessed requirement at 14,400, meaning that the residual need is 8,722 rather than 6,622. the plan does not therefore meet the full and objectively assessed need.

The Council appear to have made assumptions and assertions about where they feel it is appropriate to locate housing within the district, as well as the level of housing to be provided, before carrying out the relevant assessments with an open mind to reach such a conclusion. Thus, the process has begun from entirely the wrong premise and is based on evidence that is partial, inaccurate and subjective.

Gwrthwynebu

Publication Draft

ID sylw: 66431

Derbyniwyd: 27/06/2014

Ymatebydd: Ms Myra Styles

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Cadarn? Nac Ydi

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Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

Housing numbers are unsound and based on out of date data

Atodiadau:

Gwrthwynebu

Publication Draft

ID sylw: 66440

Derbyniwyd: 25/06/2014

Ymatebydd: Mr Robert Cochrane

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

Housing numbers are unsound and based on out of date data

Atodiadau:

Gwrthwynebu

Publication Draft

ID sylw: 66474

Derbyniwyd: 27/06/2014

Ymatebydd: Friends of the Earth

Nifer y bobl: 4

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Ydi

Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

We object to these proposed policies because of the figures of new homes proposed. The proposals need to be revised to take into account the ONS '2012-based Subnational Population Projections for England' which were released on 29 May 2014.

Gwrthwynebu

Publication Draft

ID sylw: 66475

Derbyniwyd: 27/06/2014

Ymatebydd: Friends of the Earth

Nifer y bobl: 4

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Ydi

Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

We object to these proposed policies because of the figures of new homes proposed. The proposals need to be revised to take into account the ONS '2012-based Subnational Population Projections for England' which were released on 29 May 2014.

Gwrthwynebu

Publication Draft

ID sylw: 66543

Derbyniwyd: 27/06/2014

Ymatebydd: Taylor Wimpey

Asiant : Barton Willmore

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Heb nodi

Cadarn? Heb nodi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

Council have set out a housing requirement of 12,860 dwellings over the period 2011-2029 (714 dpa). Please find enclosed with our representations at Appendix 2 the Coventry Sub-Regional Housing Study, as produced by Barton Willmore. This study provides an up-to-date position including reference to the May 2014, 2012 Sub National Population Projections (SNPP).
This document has been prepared on behalf of a consortium of developers with land interests across the West Midlands, including within the Coventry and Warwickshire Sub-Region. Whilst not wishing to repeat this document in full, there are some key points which it is appropriate to emphasise within this letter.
The minimum recommended target for Warwick District is 900 dpa, as part of a requirement of 5,100 dpa across the HMA. We also note that this doesn't include any dwellings required to be delivered by the Coventry HMA authorities as part of Birmingham's housing needs; which Barton Willmore have previously forecast at between 61 and 195 dwellings per annum for North Warwickshire and between 110 and 387 dwellings per annum for Stratford-on-Avon as part of the Birmingham sub-Regional Housing Study. Whilst this does not directly impact on Warwick District, the additional pressures placed on other authorities within the Coventry HMA will inevitably have some impact on the need for cooperation.
In order to meet what we consider to be the minimum requirement there will need to be an increase of 186 dpa in Warwick District and an increase of 1,300 dpa across the HMA against the 'Assessed Need' in Table 97 of the Coventry and Warwickshire SHMA.
The increase to this dwelling target will assist the Council in complying with the NPPF and PPG by enabling:
- Demographic need to be met;
- Forecasted economic growth to be accommodated;
- Sufficient affordable housing to be supplied; and
- A significant contribution made towards addressing the adverse market signals.
Significantly we consider that this increased housing need provides the exceptional circumstances required to justify the release of additional housing allocations.
Significantly we consider that this increased housing need provides the circumstances required to justify the release of additional housing allocations.

Gwrthwynebu

Publication Draft

ID sylw: 66561

Derbyniwyd: 27/06/2014

Ymatebydd: CPRE WARWICKSHIRE

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Heb nodi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

OAN is not a sound or justified figure. See reps relating to DS6.

Atodiadau:

Gwrthwynebu

Publication Draft

ID sylw: 66574

Derbyniwyd: 27/06/2014

Ymatebydd: CPRE WARWICKSHIRE

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Heb nodi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

Net in-migration fell from a figure of over 2,000 per annum in the years immediately following the millennium to 400 in 2008-9 and net out-migration of 700 in 2009-10. In view of this dramatic change it is not acceptable, as the 2012 SHMAA did, to take the 460 average and simply project it forward over the plan period. There is a real possibility that there will be net out-migration from rather than in-migration to the district over the plan period. The past rate of growth of population and in-migration is unsustainable. the District Council should be planning for a very much lower level of growth in which housing and employment are balanced against environmental objectives.

The SHMAs cannot claim to have been an objective assessment of housing need. The work was commissioned by local authorities and the steering committees were dominated by development interests who have a vested interest in talking up the housing needs figures. Wider interests such as residents' groups and environmental bodies were excluded from the process. WDC have assumed population growth of 17% between 2011 and 2029. This rate of growth would be above that for almost all the SHMA Projection Scenarios, despite the plan period being two years shorter than that of the SHMA. No justification is provided in the Plan for the choice of this figure. Employment forecasts are subject to great uncertainty and cannot be reliably used.

The proposal for 12860 houses is not justified in the text. The Plan is therefore unsound in its provision for housing.

The Plan does jot take account of the latest ONS population projections, which shows a much lower rate of population growth than assumed in the JSHMA. This could suggest a reduction in the housing requirement of about 3700 homes. Further average household has recently stablilised, but the plan assumes continued reductions.

Taking all these factors into account, we consider that the Plan is unsound because its housing provision is based on out-of-date information and on an over-optimistic, inflated view of both employment and population growth prospects.

Atodiadau:

Gwrthwynebu

Publication Draft

ID sylw: 66586

Derbyniwyd: 27/06/2014

Ymatebydd: Catesby Property Group

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Nac Ydi

Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

We support the Council in seeking to meet its objectively assessed need for new market and affordable housing, however the CWSHMA indicates that the overall assessed need for Warwick District amounts to 720 dwellings per annum over the period 2011 - 2031, equivalent to 12,960 for the period 2011- 2029. In light of this, we would query why the draft Plan proposes a lower requirement of 714 dwellings per annum.
The Plan is unlikely to progress to adoption until mid-2015, at best, and given this we would suggest that the Council extends the Plan period to 2031 so that it aligns with the CWSHMA, as the relevant evidence base, and more importantly, ensures that the Plan will have a 15-year life span in accordance with paragraph 157 of the NPPF.

Atodiadau:

Gwrthwynebu

Publication Draft

ID sylw: 66607

Derbyniwyd: 27/06/2014

Ymatebydd: Richborough Estates Ltd

Asiant : Strutt & Parker

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Nac Ydi

Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

If the LPA is to provide in full for its objectively assessed housing need - as it says it will in Strategic Policy DS2 - then Policy DS6 needs to be amended to read as a minimum 12,960 new homes. Table 97 contained within the Coventry and Warwickshire Joint Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report, November 2013 identifies the assessed housing need for Warwick District as being 720 dwellings per annum. 720 dwellings per annum over the identified 18 year Plan period (2011-2029) equates to 12,960 dwellings not 12,860 dwellings.

Gwrthwynebu

Publication Draft

ID sylw: 66698

Derbyniwyd: 27/06/2014

Ymatebydd: Barwood Strategic Land II Limited

Asiant : HOW Planning LLP

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

The policy confirms that the Council is planning to provide for 12,860 new homes between 2011 and 2029. Barwood raise strong objection to this policy. In the first instance Barwood object to the Council setting a definitive target for housing growth.

Warwick may have to provide housing growth for the wider HMA and until the LPAs have fully assessed whether they are capable of delivering the required growth, Warwick cannot definitively state that they are planning for their full objectively assessed housing needs. Barwood believe that the Publication Local Plan is unsound as it plans for an artificially supressed level of housing growth in conflict with the objectively assessed housing needs of the Housing Market Area.

Gwrthwynebu

Publication Draft

ID sylw: 66715

Derbyniwyd: 27/06/2014

Ymatebydd: Mr Andy Thompson

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Nac Ydi

Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

WDC has failed to consult properly and failed to take account of local representations and recent figures from ONCS on population growth

Gwrthwynebu

Publication Draft

ID sylw: 66727

Derbyniwyd: 25/06/2014

Ymatebydd: Sir Thomas White's Charity & King Henry VIII Endowed Trust

Asiant : Stansgate Planning

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Ydi

Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

The number of homes should be increased to meet an extended Local Plan period up to 2031 and to meet the needs arising from adjoining authorities.

Atodiadau:

Gwrthwynebu

Publication Draft

ID sylw: 66736

Derbyniwyd: 26/06/2014

Ymatebydd: Warwick County Councillors (J. Holland; A. Warner & J. St John)

Nifer y bobl: 3

Asiant : Jenny St. John

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Nac Ydi

Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

The over-development of the greenfield sites on the edge of south Warwick will result in air pollution which the Strategic Transport Assessments cannot mitigate. This will affect both the health of residents and the structure of our multiple historic buildings, which are so important to our sense of place and culture. Warwick already suffers from pollution levels above European guidelines on safety. The plan is not consistent with national policy on conserving and enhancing the natural environment. The latest ONS figures predict 29% fewer residents through the life of the plan therefore there should be a reduction in the number of homes required in the District, removal of a substantial number of development sites south of Warwick to prevent increased air pollution and comply with the NPPF.

Gwrthwynebu

Publication Draft

ID sylw: 66742

Derbyniwyd: 27/06/2014

Ymatebydd: Mr Richard Brookes

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Ydi

Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

The level of growth is too high. Since the publication of this Draft new ONS projections show that population growth between 2011 and 2029 is 15,300 compared with the joint SHMA figure of 23,800.
This error is compounded by the Joint SHMA using a Household Headship Ratio of 1.66 people per dwelling. If the ratios and sizes of affordable and market homes are taken into account this ratio should be 2.12. If this is applied to the new population projection this gives a housing requirement of 7,700. If the ratio of 1.66 is used this gives a requirement of 9,300.

Atodiadau:

Gwrthwynebu

Publication Draft

ID sylw: 66775

Derbyniwyd: 27/06/2014

Ymatebydd: Bishop's Tachbrook Parish Council

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Ydi

Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

Wish to help devise a sound local plan, but the publication draft is not sound for a number of reasons. The overriding reason is that the housing requirement doesn't take account of mid 2012 population projections. This means the plan is based on outdated data. The 2012 projections show population growth 28.7% less than used for the Joint SHMA. this changes the no. of dwellings required and means less infrastructure investment is needed. This in turn changes the selection of housing sites and allows brownfield sites to be committed before green field sites. This in turn enables a realistic achievable plan to be prepared.

PPG: 2a-003 "Assessing development needs should be proportionate and does not require local councils to consider purely hypothetical future scenarios, only future scenarios that could be reasonably expected to occur." Ensuring there is a supply of sites is necessary with affordable housing. but the Plan also needs to comply with Para 157 of the NPPF. It is also important to keep a balance between jobs and homes.

DTC is also important the JSHMA achieves this, but this needs to be re-examined to address the ONs projections, taking a particular problem with Coventry in to account. The JSHMA indicated a need for 67,536 homes over 18 years across the HMA. The revised projections (based on 2012 ONS) indicate a need for 68,152. However this masks an issue with Coventry's requirement whereby international migration makes up a significant element of the projected increase in Coventry's population. However international students inflow has increased since 2005, but corresponding outflow has not to the same extent (as students are generally resident for 3 years). This indicates that the increase in inflow may be due to international students on courses that are not yet completed. This temporary anomaly is projected forward in the population projections. It does not make sense to provide housing for this population as they won't be there.

If adjustments are made to reflect this, then a worst case scenario for Coventry would be an inflow of 40,000 (instead of 74,000) which is still lower than the JSHMA figure. This in turn would lead to a reduction in the HMA's housing requirement from 68,152 to 51,327.

with this level of housing Warwick District could justify a lower level of housing at the same time as fulfilling the DTC.

The publication draft provides for too many homes and must be revised to reflect the latest projections. Further the JSHMA used an abstract and subjective concept of headship rates. This is critical because small changes in the average household size can alter homes required significantly. It also bases its average household size on the total population. This gives an incorrect result. ONS calculate the population estimates and projections on the total population less those living in communal establishments adding these back into the total population at the end of any calculation. This gives a true average household size which is different to the SHMA household size and varies the relationship between areas as each has a different communal proportion. If the population growth is going to be less, then the household size to use needs to be addressed. different options produce different outcomes. for instance the 2011 census rate would require 6715 homes for an increase of 15,313 people. However the likelihood is that household size will rise rather than fall.

Two other factors will also affect future measures of household size. Over time as affordable homes are reallocated to existing occupants, vacant spaces will become occupied. For owner occupiers, as people find house prices unaffordable, rather than move they tend to stay where they are but extend their properties to accommodate extra children etc. So a calculated outcome can be used to provide the capacity in a lower but acceptable number of homes.

As well as being better in terms of providing the right tenure mix, it is also better from a sustainability point of view as it takes less land, avoids loss of agricultural land, is better from a CO2 emissions reduction viewpoint both from energy used in homes and travel from fossil fuel vehicles, reduces costs and makes all homes more affordable and spreads the homes required around the district, reducing the amount of infrastructure needed by the additional population.

Atodiadau:

Gwrthwynebu

Publication Draft

ID sylw: 66791

Derbyniwyd: 26/06/2014

Ymatebydd: Gallagher Estates

Asiant : Pegasus Group

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Heb nodi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

A key function of the plan is to meet in full the need for housing over the plan period. Policy DS6 does not, in our view, achieve this. It is considered that the requirement figure of 12,860 dwellings 2011 to 2029 is not positively prepared and is unsound. There is concern that the migration assumptions that have fed into the SHMA are not reflective of representative or normal migration patterns which instead have been influenced by the artificial policy constraint arising from the housing moratorium in place in Warwick District between 2005 and February 2009 . There was a period of recession once the moratorium was lifted which also has the effect of constraining supply and influencing migration trends.
There is also concern about the household formation rates used in the SHMA which use a blended approach utilising both 2008 and 2011 headship rates. It is considered that the use of 2011 headship rates to 2021 then 2008 headship rates for the following 10 years is far too pessimistic. The SHMA supports growth in labour supply of around 12% for the baseline assessment which falls short of the Experian forecast of 14.3%. It makes reference to unmet need which has not been added to the projections despite planning practice guidance stating it should be. Using the Chelmer model an alternative assessment has been undertaken for Warwick District which concludes the starting point for determining the actual housing requirement for Warwick is a figure of 15,084 dwellings over the plan period 2011 to 2029 based on the most up to date demographic information. To fulfil economic potential and to provide for projected employment growth within the plan period a higher requirement of circa 18,043 should be considered. In light of this it is considered that the delivery of 715 homes per annum would not deliver the full objectively assessed need for housing in the District. It would not assist in delivering economic growth, wouldn't address the serious imbalance in supply and demand and would not deliver the affordable housing needed. In the past the District has delivered rates of 900 + which suggests a rate of 1000 per annum could be achieved.

Gwrthwynebu

Publication Draft

ID sylw: 66797

Derbyniwyd: 25/06/2014

Ymatebydd: Mr Ian Lovecy

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Heb nodi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

It is not possible to estimate housing requirements accurately due to so many uncertainties. It therefore doesn't make sense to set a requirement to the nearest 10 houses and experience shows this is likely to inaccurate in either direction.

Atodiadau:

Gwrthwynebu

Publication Draft

ID sylw: 66825

Derbyniwyd: 27/06/2014

Ymatebydd: Europa Way Consortium

Asiant : AMEC

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Ydi

Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

The housing target policy in DS6 should be clearly identified as a minimum delivery requirement, net of demolitions, to enable the full objectively assessed need to be met.

The District's overall affordable housing need should be increased to 360 affordable dwellings per annum to deal with past undersupply.

The December 2012 Economic and Demographic Forecasts study shows net in migration of 855 persons a year in Warwick, therefore the zero migration scenario used in the 2013 SHMA is likely to have underestimated the need for affordable housing. In addition the 2012 SHMA identified a need for 698 affordable dwellings per annum in the District. This is a significantly higher level of need identified only one year before the joint SHMA.

The Council's proposed figure of 12,860 homes between 2011 and 2029 is over 100 dwellings less than what the Joint SHMA states is the objectively assessed housing target.

Atodiadau:

Gwrthwynebu

Publication Draft

ID sylw: 67117

Derbyniwyd: 03/07/2014

Ymatebydd: Mr Ben Orme

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

The overall forecast of housing need of 12900 is considered to be exaggerated. The ONS estimates have been revised downwards and suggest only 8,100 houses are needed to meet natural increase and inward migration to Warwick District. The SHMA suggests that occupancy rates of houses will fall significantly from 2.2. Such a decrease is unrealistic and the plan is therefore seeking to justify the provision of more houses than will actually be needed to house the target population.
There is already more than a five year supply of land ready for development. As ONS estimates have dropped less houses will be needed to meet the requirement for 5 years supply. Campaign groups have claimed that there is already a five year supply; the revised ONS estimates would appear to reinforce this position.
Population projections underpin the plan and are fundamental to it being properly justified/sound. The GL Hearn projections used in the SHMA for Coventry and Warwickshire are used as the basis for the Plan but are now discredited by the may ONS population figures issued in May 2014.
The recent ONS figures are much lower than those used in the SHMA 15,313 rather 21,472, a fall of 6,159 persons or a 28.7% reduction. This is very significant in that it changes the numbers of dwellings that will be necessary; the amount of infrastructure needed to support the housing / population and reduces the amount of Greenfield needed to be taken for new allocations.
The reduction in population and required housing will also improve the 5 year housing supply position.
It is considered that the SHMA underestimates the future housing occupancy rate in the district (see statistics in full submission). This alongside the potential for minor density adjustments can also have an impact on the amount of housing required in Warwick District and could lower the numbers significantly.
Research undertaken by local campaign groups (supported by respected University of Warwick economists), shows conclusively that maintaining a housing target of 12900 by 2028 cannot be justified on the basis of the latest figures ( see power point slides in full submission).
A decision to continue to work to the Council's current housing target can only be based on the Leadership of Warwick District Council being determined to " go for growth" in the face of the communities wish for a plan that would do no more than meet the needs of natural growth with a modest allowance for inward migration.
To conclude / summarise
*Warwick's population projection is now 28.7% less than the figures used to formulate the consultation draft local plan. The Plan is therefore unsound based on incorrect/ inadequate data.
*All the other authorities in the Housing Market area are also showing similar reductions in their population projections, including Coventry.
*The method by which population is converted into the numbers of dwellings required needs better determination by calculation, using the known housing type and size to be included in the plan.
*The lower housing target will require the list of sites to be included in the plan to be reduced. In sustainability terms this will imply brownfield sites being put first and only including Greenfield where essential.
*To delay a revision of the 5 year housing supply calculation / requirement in light of the new evidence of a much lower need for housing would be neglectful.
*Dependent matters such as infrastructure needs and costs will then need to be matched to the new lower target.

Gwrthwynebu

Publication Draft

ID sylw: 67131

Derbyniwyd: 24/06/2014

Ymatebydd: Mr Ray Steele

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Nac Ydi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Nac Ydi

Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

Latest update from ONS suggests a reduction of 30% in need for LP. WDC has been requested to reflect this in the LP. It will require considerable changes and revised LP. However, many houses have already been granted planning permission ahead of inspection.

Atodiadau:

Gwrthwynebu

Publication Draft

ID sylw: 67222

Derbyniwyd: 27/06/2014

Ymatebydd: Bloor Homes Midlands

Asiant : Marrons Planning

Cydymffurfio â’r gyfraith? Heb nodi

Cadarn? Nac Ydi

Dyletswydd i gydweithredu? Heb nodi

Crynodeb o'r Gynrychiolaeth:

The draft Local Plan has failed to demonstrate:
* it has proactively driven/supported sustainable economic development, and done everything it can to support sustainable economic growth;
* it meets the business needs of the area and delivers homes to support the growth of the local economy;
* it is based on the most up-to-date and robust evidence about the economic prospects and needs of the area; and,
* it integrates the strategic policies for prosperity (Strategic Policies DS1 and DS8) and housing (Strategic Policies DS2 and DS6).
The level of economic growth to be provided for is not defined within the draft Local Plan.
The strategy for prosperity in the draft Local Plan is to provide for the growth of the local and sub-regional economy by ensuring sufficient/appropriate employment land is available to meet the existing/future needs of businesses (Strategic Policy DS1).
Policy DS8 provides for a minimum of 66ha of employment land to meet local need (for the period 2011 to 2030). The strategy for housing is to provide in full the objectively assessed need (Strategic Policy DS2). Policies DS6, DS7 and DS10 provides for 12,860 new homes (for the period 2011 to 2029).
The evidence base fails to support Paragraph 2.7 of the LP that economic growth has been balanced with housing growth, and that meeting the full objectively assessed need for housing will complement and meet the economic and business needs and ambitions of the District.
The evidence can be found within the Economic and Demographic Forecasts Study (EDFS) (December 2012), the Employment Land Review Update (ELR) (May 2013), and its economic ambitions can be found within the Strategic Economic Plan for Coventry & Warwickshire LEP (SEP) (March 2014).
The economic strength of Warwick is undeniable, and is summarised in paragraphs 3.1 to 3.6 of the ELR. Its economy has outperformed the West Midlands and UK in terms of its growth and is forecast to continue that trend (both in terms of GVA and employment) into the plan period. Warwick has an economic structure which is aligned to the future growth sectors, such as professional services, healthcare, and IT.
Warwick also has a particular strength in the automotive/vehicle manufacturing sector, with several major employers including Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) who have facilities located both within and on the edge of the District. Given the significance of JLR to the national economy, it is no surprise that the Vision for Coventry & Warwickshire in 2025 within the SEP is to be recognised as a global hub and a UK Centre of Excellence in the advanced manufacturing and engineering sector. Many of the SEP's priorities and actions are focussed around facilitating the growth of this sector, including investment to deliver new/expanded facilities at several employment sites within and bordering Warwick District. The SEP has estimated its actions alone may generate over 50,000 jobs by 2030 across the sub-region.
It is very clear from the evidence that the Warwick economy is undoubtedly the 'powerhouse' within the sub-region and West Midlands region. Its future economic performance and continued success is therefore critical to the overall performance of the sub-region and regional economy, and the delivery of the ambitions within SEP.
Whilst the availability of suitable employment land is a key factor influencing Warwick's future economic growth and prosperity, it is not the only component that the Local Plan will need to influence.
A key challenges is to ensure that the planned growth of Warwick and the sub-region's economy is not frustrated by lack of access to skilled workforce. To deliver a global hub and national centre of excellence, requires businesses to be able to attract the necessary talent. Providing access to available homes of a high quality is an essential component of the offer. SEP recognises that the shortage of new homes can be a significant barrier to sustainable economic growth.
In this context, it is of concern that the objectively assessed housing need figure chosen by the Council fails to support a growth in labour supply that meets the forecasts for employment growth. The chosen housing figure only supports labour supply growth of 8,996 for the period 2011 to 2031 leaving a shortfall against the forecast of between 1,304 and 1,904 jobs.
This shortfall is likely to be under-estimated as the employment forecasts preceded the publication of the SEP and have not taken account of its potential influence in accelerating the rate of growth of growing sectors within Warwick. Mindful of the growth in housing supply not keeping pace with the economic ambitions for the area, it is noted that the SEP prioritises a review of additional future housing numbers across the sub-region by the end of March 2015 (page 8). The draft Local Plan does state that it has taken account of the SEP, although there is no reference to a review of its housing numbers within the draft Local Plan.
Whilst it is recognised that the shortfall in labour supply growth might be mitigated through people holding down more than one job, or increased in-commuting from outside of the District (as suggested within paragraph 7.28 of the SHMA), it is noted that when recommending the chosen housing figure, the SHMA advised the Council to consider its
alignment with forecast economic growth, and how employment growth will be supported.
It is not clear whether the Council has undertaken this exercise as the draft Local Plan does not explain how the shortfall between growth in labour supply and growth in jobs will be addressed, or what the implications may be. In commuting from outside the District is one possible consequence.
In this context, it is considered that the strategy has not been positively prepared as it has not proactively driven and supported sustainable economic development, or done everything it can to support sustainable economic growth. It does not meet the objectively assessed development requirements as set out in the evidence base, and therefore is not in accordance with the Framework.