Issue and Options 2023

6: Delivering homes that meet the needs of all our communities

Chapter 6 sets out various options as to how we might meet our housing challenges facing us to 2050 and seeks your views on the 6 key housing issues:

• Issue H1: Providing the right number of new homes
• Issue H2: Providing the right tenure and type of homes
• Issue H3: Providing the right size of homes
• Issue H4: Accommodating housing needs arising from outside of South Warwickshire
• Issue H5: Providing custom and self-build housing plots
• Issue H6: Pitches and plots for Gypsies and Travellers

The Plan needs to allow for new homes that meet the diverse needs of all our residents, including affordable, student, old persons, specialist and self and custom build housing, along with the accommodation needs of gypsy and traveller and travelling showpeople communities. Within Warwick there is a younger demographic of people due to the proximity of the university and the gaming industry in the area. Some of these are in lower paid jobs and are travelling into the area from places such as Coventry as they can't afford to rent or live in Warwick or Leamington.

Providing new homes is important not only in South Warwickshire but nationally; it not only gives people a place to live but it also supports the local economy creating construction jobs, supporting existing facilities and services so they remain open, making the area more attractive to local employers and promoting additional spending in the local economy. New homes also provide contributions to improve and provide new infrastructure such as schools and open spaces.

The Stratford-on-Avon District Housing Strategy (2021-2026) identifies the housing challenges facing the District and sets out what the Council and its partners must do to tackle them. It sets out three aims and the Local Plan has a role in helping to aspects of this:

1. To support communities and build sustainable affordable homes
2. To improve existing housing and help people live independently
3. To prevent homelessness and reduce the harm caused by it

The Warwick District Housing Strategy (2014-17) identifies a number of objectives through which the Local Plan can contribute:

1. Enabling and providing services that help people to sustain their homes
2. Meeting the need for housing across the district
3. Raising standards of management, repair and improvement of existing housing and neighbourhoods

Issue H1: Providing the right number of new homes

England is experiencing a housing crisis and our current local plans are working to help address this issue by delivering high levels of both market and affordable homes. Both Councils have delivered record levels of housing growth in recent years demonstrating that the two Local Plans are effectively delivering on our housing ambitions. View the current Stratford-on-Avon and Warwick District housing trajectories.

The graph in Figure 22 shows the national perspective and highlights that the cause of the crisis nationally has been a failure in the supply of affordable homes to achieve the Government's target of 300,000 homes annually.

Figure 22: House building: permanent dwellings completed, by tenure, England, historical calendar year series

(Sources: P2 returns from local authorities (DCLG), National House-Building Council (NHBC))

Importantly, the issue is not just one of supply, specifically and crucially, it an issue to do with the lack of affordable housing supply. Building lots and lots of (unaffordable) market homes will not address this issue. Whilst we do need to build some market homes, the local plan needs to explore ways of significantly increasing the delivery of affordable homes across South Warwickshire. To determine the minimum number of homes needed, the Local Plan needs to be informed by an assessment of local housing need. In order to gain an understanding of what the housing need is for South Warwickshire up to 2050, an up-to-date Housing and Economic Development Needs Assessment (HEDNA) has been produced for the whole of Coventry and Warwickshire using the latest information from the 2021 Census.

The starting point for assessing housing need is the standard method set out in Planning Practice Guidance. This uses, as its baseline, the 2014-based household growth projections produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The standard method then uses a prescribed approach which includes applying an uplift to this based on the relative housing affordability position of individual local authorities. For cities such as Coventry, a further 35% uplift is also applied.

The Standard Method calculation identifies a need for 5,554 dwellings annually across Coventry and Warwickshire. However there have been recognised issues with estimating and projecting the population in Coventry. The initial 2021 Census data (released in June 2022) supports this.

The HEDNA has therefore modelled new demographic projections which take account of the initial Census data releases, and seeks to assess how the population can be expected to change over time by applying more up-to-date assumptions about fertility, mortality and household formation rates. The HEDNA then applies these alternative projections through the framework provided by the standard method.

The results of the housing needs modelling undertaken are shown in Table 9. The new trend-based projections point to a need for 4,906 dwellings annually across the sub-region. This is lower than the 5,554 per annum Standard Method figure due to the recognised issues with population data which have informed previous projections for Coventry.

Importantly, the demographic growth projections also support sufficient growth in labour supply across Coventry and Warwickshire as a whole.

Table 9: Overall Housing Need in Coventry and Warwickshire (dwellings per annum)

(Source: Table 15.1, Coventry & Warwickshire HEDNA, Iceni Consulting)

Given across the sub-region that population figures have been over-estimated for many years, it is reasonable and expected that any alternative trend-based projection would show a lower need. What is apparent, however, is that the need is not lower in all areas within the Housing Market Area, and both Stratford-on-Avon and Warwick Districts are likely to see higher levels of growth.

However, it also needs to be remembered that the total amount of housing that the Local Plan will need to provide will also include an agreed proportion of any need from Greater Birmingham & the Black Country and from Coventry that cannot be accommodated within those areas. In the current Warwick District Local Plan, for example, 332 homes per year need to be provided to meet Coventry's housing needs. As the figures in the above table show, the overall housing need in Coventry is lower in the HEDNA (compared to the previous 2014-based projections). Therefore, it follows that the Local Plan will be likely to need to accommodate fewer additional homes from Coventry based on these figures. This issue is considered further below under issue H4 (accommodating housing need arising from outside of South Warwickshire).

It should also be noted that the above figures represent levels of need – they do not reflect any assessment of whether those needs can be met within each local authority area. In preparing the South Warwickshire Local Plan, we are bound by our responsibilities under the Duty to Co-operate. This is a legal test we must pass in order for the plan to pass successfully through the examination process, adopted and come into force. The Duty to Co-operate requires us to work proactively and positively with other councils and statutory bodies to effectively address strategic cross-boundary matters. The issue of housing shortfalls is one such matter.

As such, whilst it may be tempting to want to apply the 2014-based figures because they are lower for South Warwickshire, given that Coventry looks unable to accommodate all of its own housing needs, it would most likely fall to South Warwickshire to accommodate a significant quantum of that need. The outcome would then most likely be similar levels of housing as shown in the 10-year trend-based projection. Section H4 of this consultation document deals specifically with the issue of housing shortfalls from outside South Warwickshire.

An added disadvantage of using the 2014-based projection would be that the South Warwickshire Local Plan was predicated on figures based on erroneous assumptions that have been proven to be wrong.

Work is ongoing to confirm how much housing can be provided from various sources both in terms of existing and future capacity to help meet the need, this includes an understanding what has already been built, has planning permission or is identified for development in existing Plans and the capacity of small 'windfall' sites.

Future capacity will have regard to both identified and windfall sites, and work is ongoing to assess the sites submitted in the 2021 'Call for Sites' exercise in order to consider their availability, suitability and deliverability as part of the Housing and Economic Land Availability Assessment (HELAA). In addition, potential capacity identified through the Urban Capacity Study will help inform the overall capacity potential.

From this it will be possible to identify the supply of specific sites and broad locations between years 1-5, 6-10 and where possible later years of the plan. A trajectory will illustrate the expected rate of housing delivery over the plan period and identify and anticipated rates of delivery for specific strategic sites.

Current Adopted Policy

Issue H2: Providing the right tenure and type of homes

Current adopted policy

Housing affordability affects the ability of younger people to get onto the housing ladder and for people who work in the area to live locally.

Affordable housing is an umbrella term that encompasses lots of different tenures of housing that are provided at a cost below market homes. It is important to understand and plan for what is most needed in South Warwickshire.

Similarly, there is an ongoing need for a wide range of specialist types of housing across South Warwickshire, such as that for disabled people, older people, students and single people.

Linked to both of these issues is the mix and type of housing that is being provided in terms of how many bedrooms they contain and whether they are flats, houses or bungalows. Getting this right is crucial to meeting our overall housing needs, both in relation to open market housing and also in relation to affordable and specialist housing. As noted above, ensuring that we have the right homes to meet our job aspirations is not just about the issue of how many homes we build; it is about the type and tenure of homes that we build.

The HEDNA considers the need for affordable housing across South Warwickshire and these requirements are set out in Table 10. Importantly, the HEDNA notes that these figures should be considered for reference purposes and should not directly inform decisions about an appropriate mix as this will in part be informed by viability considerations as well as national affordable housing policy initiatives and funding availability. Furthermore, within the figure for rented affordable housing, the HEDNA estimates that 56% comes from existing households who need a different form of tenure (such as households in the private rented sector).

Table 10: Net Affordable Housing Needs (per annum)

(Source: Table 8.45, Coventry & Warwickshire HEDNA, Iceni Consulting)

Affordable homes are offered to those eligible households on the housing register. Currently, the primary way that affordable housing is delivered is as a percentage component of market housing schemes. The presumption is also that such provision should be provided onsite.

Currently, the affordable homes provided contribute towards addressing District-wide needs. As such, a household with local connections in Alcester may be offered a home in Southam.

It is important to understand where the need for different types and tenures of housing is arising so that policies can be targeted to aim to address the need locationally as much as possible. The South Warwickshire Local Plan is an opportunity to revisit how affordable housing policy is implemented to 2050.

Table 10 shows the estimated needs for different types of housing linked to the population projections as set out in the HEDNA. The analysis is separated into the various different types and tenures although it should be recognised that there could be some overlap between categories (i.e. some households might be suited to more than one type of accommodation).

Overall, the analysis suggests that there will be a need of 234 homes per annum for both housing with support and housing with care (in both market and affordable sectors). In addition, there is an additional need for 42 nursing and residential care bedspaces per annum.

Table 11: Older Persons Needs to 2032

(Source: Table 14.17, Coventry & Warwickshire HEDNA, Iceni Consulting)

It should also be noted that within any category of need there may be a range of products available. For example, many recent market extra-care schemes have tended to be focused towards the 'top-end' of the market and may have significant service charges (due to the level and quality of facilities and services). Such homes may therefore only be affordable to a small proportion of the potential market, and it will be important for the Councils to seek a range of products that will be accessible to a wider number of households if needs are to be met.

Given the high level of needs of older people, consideration may need to be given to where older people housing schemes are located and what the implications an increasing older population may have on the provision of health and social care services.

Issue H3: Providing the right size of homes

Just as important as building the right type of homes, is ensuring that the right mix of homes is provided. Housing size also has an affordability aspect to it as smaller homes will cost less. However, it is important not to forget that many households in housing need will require larger properties.

The HEDNA recommends a range of sizes of homes across the three main housing tenures as shown in Table 12.

Importantly, the HEDNA notes that these figures are intended to be used as a monitoring tool rather than to be applied rigidly to all individual development sites. In applying the evidence, consideration should be given to the existing house mix in the locality and gaps within this; site location and characteristics; and local needs or market evidence (including from Council's housing registers). Additionally, the HEDNA advises that the Councils should consider the role of bungalows within the mix – such housing can be particularly attractive to older person households downsizing and may help to release larger (family-sized) accommodation back into the market. Provision of specialist housing can assist in releasing existing family homes and supporting turnover in the wider housing market.

Table 12: Suggested housing size mix

(Source: Tables 15.6, 15.7 and 15.8, Coventry and Warwickshire HEDNA, Iceni Consulting)

In addition to the number of bedrooms, the actual size of homes (i.e. internal housing space standards) is an issue which recurs through public engagement with a suggestion that minimum internal space standards should be applied through a local plan policy. The Nationally Described Space Standard set out by government (and schemes such as 'Lifetime Homes') are intended to create homes which are accessible and able to accommodate changing personal circumstances and growing families. However, they have no statutory use on new developments requiring planning consent, unless they (or other standards based on locally derived evidence) are included in local policy.

In addition, it was agreed in response to a Notice of Motion to Council in Warwick District, that the principle of incorporating Nationally Described Space Standards within the SWLP would be considered through the plan making process (see Cabinet meeting for 29 September 2022, Item 09).

At this point in the plan process, we have not gathered evidence on the need for/benefits of locally derived space standards, though it has been raised as something to consider via different routes. This will need to be further considered against viability and deliverability of development.

The HEDNA identifies the number of homes estimated to be needed for wheelchair users and these requirements are set out in Table 13 for South Warwickshire.

Table 13: Estimated need for wheelchair user homes by 2032

(Source: Table 14.24, Coventry and Warwickshire HEDNA, Iceni Consulting)

Current policy context

There is currently no policy within either the Stratford-on-Avon District Core Strategy, or the Warwick District Local Plan which specifies local minimum space standards across all new homes. Policy CS.9 of the Stratford-on-Avon Core Strategy does however make a reference to having 'a good standard of space', and CS.19 (B) sets out that 1 and 2 bed affordable homes should be built with bedrooms capable of satisfactorily accommodating two occupiers in each room.

We know South Warwickshire has a growing aging population. In recognition of this, and additional accessibility needs associated with an aging population, the plan may consider whether to incorporate optional accessibility standards within the current Building Regulations, as mandatory.

Issue H4: Accommodating housing needs arising from outside of South Warwickshire

National policy requires Local Plans to also provide for any needs that can't be met within neighbouring areas unless:

• The application of policies in the NPPF that protect areas or assets of particular importance provides a strong reason for restricting the overall scale, type or distribution of development in the plan area; or
• Any adverse effects of doing so would significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits, when assessed against the policies in the NPPF.

Given the size of South Warwickshire it is considered that any additional needs can be accommodated outside of any protected areas (e.g. Cotswolds National Landscape/AONB). One exception could be areas designated as Green Belt but only if such locations were considered suitable, appropriate, and necessary as part of the wider development strategy. Find out more about our proposed approach to Green Belt locations in Section S5 of this document. Certainly, there is a strong argument that if homes are being provided to meet needs arising in Coventry and Birmingham, then those homes should be located as close as possible to the source of those needs in order to minimise travel.

In respect of any adverse effects, once the scale of any contributions are known, the impacts of accommodating these additional homes and the suitability of any locations will be tested through the various accompanying technical studies that underpin this plan e.g. SA/SEA.

The existing Plans both address the requirement to provide for an element of meeting unmet housing need arising from outside of each of the Districts.

Current Adopted Policy

A Housing Market Area (HMA) is geographical area where there arekey relationships between the places where people live and work. HMAs are mapped nationally and are available at Housing market areas - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk).

South Warwickshire sits most fully within the Coventry and Warwickshire HMA, with Warwick District most strongly related to Coventry given its shared boundary and interrelationships with the city. However, South Warwickshire is also within the Birmingham and Black Country HMA owing to Stratford-on-Avon District's shared boundaries and inter-relationships with Solihull and Redditch boroughs and Bromsgrove district. In respect of elsewhere, although not within any other HMAs, South Warwickshire does share boundaries with authorities in the Worcester, Cheltenham and Oxford HMAs.

Through the Duty to Co-operate, South Warwickshire has a responsibility to help address unmet needs.

There are four elements to unmet needs that may have implications for South Warwickshire:

1. Shortfall from the Greater Birmingham and Black Country Housing Market Area (HMA) to 2031

The Greater Birmingham HMA comprises 14 local authorities covering the administrative areas of Birmingham, Bromsgrove, Cannock Chase, Lichfield, Redditch, Solihull, Tamworth, North Warwickshire, Stratford-on-Avon, the Black Country (Dudley, Sandwell, Walsall and Wolverhampton) and South Staffordshire.

Figure 23 – Greater Birmingham and Black Country Housing Market Area Geography

In respect of Birmingham, it is acknowledged that a housing shortfall of 37,900 was confirmed through the adoption of the Birmingham City Plan in February 2018. Officers from the 14 authorities have formed an officer group to co-ordinate work to resolve the issue of the housing shortfall, including co-ordinating the monitoring of housing delivery. The group jointly commissioned consultants to undertake a Strategic Growth Study to help to address the original shortfall. The authorities also published Position Statements in 2018 and 2020 setting out progress to remedying that shortfall. An updated position statement addendum has since been prepared as of December 2021. Information on this is available to view here. This confirms the shortfall across the housing market area as now being 6,302 homes to 2031.

Whilst the position in relation to this unmet need between 2031 and 2050 for South Warwickshire is still under consideration, for the period up to 2031 the emerging Stratford-on-Avon Site Allocations Plan makes a number of Reserve Site allocations to meet the needs of the Greater Birmingham and Black Country HMA up to 2031.

Policy SAP.4 of the Stratford-on-Avon Site Allocation Plan Revised Preferred Options (June 2022) identifies a number of sites with a total capacity of approximately 380 homes that, subject to the provision of SAP.5 (Applications for Reserve Housing Sites), will be released to provide Stratford-on-Avon District's contribution to meeting the shortfall in dwelling provision in the Greater Birmingham & Black Country HMA:

• STR.A – North of Evesham Road, Stratford-upon-Avon
• STR.B – East of Shipston Road, Stratford-upon-Avon
• STR.C – South of Alcester Road, Stratford-upon-Avon
• MAPP.A – West of Birmingham Road, Mappleborough Green

The following additional sites totalling 150 homes will also be released if specific infrastructure constraints can be overcome by 2031:

• STR.D – East of Banbury Road, Stratford-upon-Avon

2. Shortfall from the Greater Birmingham and Black Country Housing Market Area (HMA) to 2050

In addition to the shortfalls identified for the period to 2031, Birmingham City Council has also commenced work on its Local Plan Review to 2042 and has published an Issues and Options consultation. This identifies a shortfall in housing of 78,415 homes. Additional shortfalls may also be identified arising from the Black Country authorities.

In addressing any shortfall, the two Councils will need to work closely with the other councils within the housing market area. Consideration may also need to be given the the strength of the relationship between the South Warwickshire and the source of these shortfalls. These shortfalls exist because the areas from which they originate are constrained by the West Midlands Green Belt. The consequence of the Green Belt is that if needs cannot be met within the urban areas, then provision must be made in those rural areas beyond the Green Belt, such as South Warwickshire.

For the purposes of the accompanying Sustainability Appraisal we have tested the effects of an additional 5,000 and 10,000 homes.

3. Shortfall from Coventry to 2050

Issue H1 above sets out the approach to needs arising within Coventry and Warwickshire. Even under the redistribution of housing resulting from the trend-based projection, Coventry may not be able to accommodate all of its housing needs (1,964 homes per annum), and as such a relatively modest shortfall may exist to 2050 which South Warwickshire will need to do its part in addressing. We will firstly work with colleagues from Coventry to identify how much housing it can accommodate and secondly, with the other councils across Warwickshire to agree how the shortfall is best accommodated.

4. Shortfall from other HMA areas to 2050

South Warwickshire is adjoined by a number of other HMAs, however the linkages are relatively weak. The Councils liaise with relevant neighbouring authorities and to date none has sought to request that either Council contributes to meeting their housing needs.

It is therefore not anticipated that South Warwickshire will be required to meet any housing needs arising from any other HMAs up to 2050.

Issue H5: Providing custom and self-build housing plots

Self and Custom-built homes range from those that people build themselves to homes which individuals commission, making key design and layout decisions, but the home is built ready for occupation. This type of housing can help to diversify the local housing market and increase choice.

Current adopted and emerging approach

Issue H6: Pitches and Plots for gypsies, travellers and travelling showpeople

Developing sustainable communities that are strong, vibrant and healthy, and which meet the needs of all sectors of the community, including Gypsies and Travellers and Travelling Showpeople, is an important requirement for this Plan. The lack of suitable permanent sites can lead to unauthorised encampments and is difficult to control and manage. Having a Local Plan that sets out how the need will be met provides certainty to communities as to where this type of development will take place rather than having to react to speculative applications or appeals.

There are not enough sites across South Warwickshire for this type of accommodation and so we need to plan for more, up to date evidence is currently being prepared to identify what the need is for pitches and plots across South Warwickshire up to 2050. This may include a combination of both permanent and transit pitches and sites.

Current adopted policy

There are a number of ways we can increase the availability of Gypsy and Traveller and Travelling Showpeople accommodation to meet the need; the best solution may be a combination of options.